tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11726891325954215392024-02-21T03:08:00.169+07:00TrendevolutionKULIONLINEhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07689534547405416862noreply@blogger.comBlogger300125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1172689132595421539.post-7349291046608873492018-12-16T09:52:00.003+07:002018-12-16T11:01:56.017+07:00The Festering Social Rift Over Pensions<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<a href="https://www.peakprosperity.com/blog/114625/festering-social-rift-over-pensions"><em>Authored by Adam Taggart via PeakProsperity.com,</em></a><br />
<strong><em>Why does he get to retire and I don't?</em></strong><br />
<a data-image-external-href="" data-image-href="/sites/default/files/inline-images/screenshot2018-12-14at12455pm.png?itok=BpLd8WXg" data-link-option="0" href="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/screenshot2018-12-14at12455pm.png?itok=BpLd8WXg"><img alt="" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="13cffb4f-6921-4861-8bbb-52f68aa764c7" data-responsive-image-style="inline_images" height="347" src="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/screenshot2018-12-14at12455pm.png" srcset="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/screenshot2018-12-14at12455pm.png?itok=BpLd8WXg 1x" typeof="foaf:Image" width="500" /></a><br />
Most Americans will never be able to afford to retire.<br />
We laid out the depressing math in our recent report <a href="https://www.peakprosperity.com/blog/114497/will-your-retirement-efforts-achieve-escape-velocity">Will Your Retirement Efforts Achieve Escape Velocity?</a>:<br />
<ul>
<li><strong>The median retirement account balance among all working US adults is <u>$0</u></strong>. This is true even for the cohort closest to retirement age, those 55-64 years old.</li>
<li><strong>The average (i.e., mean) near-retirement individual has <u>less than 8% of one year's income</u> saved </strong>in a retirement account</li>
<li><strong><u>77%</u> of all American households aren't on track to have enough net worth to retire</strong>, even under the most conservative estimates.</li>
</ul>
<a data-image-external-href="" data-image-href="/sites/default/files/inline-images/NIRS-retirement-shortfall-chart_0.png?itok=UrCG_Zmw" data-link-option="0" href="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/NIRS-retirement-shortfall-chart_0.png?itok=UrCG_Zmw"><img alt="" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="09f2fb88-c75f-41fc-a8f3-96fb6813381a" data-responsive-image-style="inline_images" height="379" src="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/NIRS-retirement-shortfall-chart_0.png" srcset="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/NIRS-retirement-shortfall-chart_0.png?itok=UrCG_Zmw 1x" typeof="foaf:Image" width="500" /></a><br />
(<a href="https://www.nirsonline.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/SavingsCrisis_Final.pdf">Source</a>)<br />
There a number of causal factors that have contributed to this lack of retirement preparedness (decades of stagnant real wages, fast-rising cost of living, the Great Recession, etc), but as we explained in our report <a href="https://www.peakprosperity.com/blog/113449/great-retirement-con">The Great Retirement Con</a>, perhaps none has had more impact than the shift from dedicated-contribution pension plans to voluntary private savings:<br />
<blockquote>
<h2>
The Origins Of The Retirement Plan</h2>
Back during the Revolutionary War, the Continental Congress promised a monthly lifetime income to soldiers who fought and survived the conflict. This guaranteed income stream, called a "pension", was again offered to soldiers in the Civil War and every American war since.<br />
Since then, similar pension promises funded from public coffers expanded to cover retirees from other branches of government. States and cities followed suit -- extending pensions to all sorts of municipal workers ranging from policemen to politicians, teachers to trash collectors.<br />
A pension is what's referred to as a <strong>defined benefit plan</strong>. The payout promised a worker upon retirement is guaranteed up front according to a formula, typically dependent on salary size and years of employment.<br />
Understandably, workers appreciated the security and dependability offered by pensions. So, as a means to attract skilled talent, the private sector started offering them, too.<br />
The first corporate pension was offered by the American Express Company in 1875. <strong>By the 1960s, half of all employees in the private sector were covered by a pension plan.</strong><br />
<h2>
Off-loading Of Retirement Risk By Corporations</h2>
Once pensions had become commonplace, they were much less effective as an incentive to lure top talent. They started to feel like burdensome cost centers to companies.<br />
As America's corporations grew and their veteran employees started hitting retirement age, the amount of funding required to meet current and future pension funding obligations became huge. And it kept growing. Remember, the Baby Boomer generation, the largest ever by far in US history, was just entering the workforce by the 1960s.<br />
Companies were eager to get this expanding liability off of their backs. And the more poorly-capitalized firms started defaulting on their pensions, stiffing those who had loyally worked for them.<br />
So, it's little surprise that the 1970s and '80s saw the introduction of personal retirement savings plans. The Individual Retirement Arrangement (IRA) was formed by the Employee Retirement Income Security Act (ERISA) in 1974. And the first 401k plan was created in 1980.<br />
These savings vehicles are <strong>defined contribution plans</strong>. The future payout of the plan is variable (i.e., unknown today), and will be largely a function of how much of their income the worker directs into the fund over their career, as well as the market return on the fund's investments.<br />
Touted as a revolutionary improvement for the worker, these plans promised to give the individual power over his/her own financial destiny. No longer would it be dictated by their employer.<br />
<em>Your company doesn't offer a pension?</em> No worries: open an IRA and create your own personal pension fund.<br />
<em>Afraid your employer might mismanage your pension fund?</em> A 401k removes that risk. You decide how your retirement money is invested.<br />
<em>Want to retire sooner?</em> Just increase the percent of your annual income contributions.<br />
All this sounded pretty good to workers. But it sounded GREAT to their employers.<br />
Why? Because it transferred the burden of retirement funding away from the company and onto its employees. It allowed for the removal of a massive and fast-growing liability off of the corporate balance sheet, and materially improved the outlook for future earnings and cash flow.<br />
As you would expect given this, corporate America moved swiftly over the next several decades to cap pension participation and transition to defined contribution plans.<br />
The table below shows how vigorously pensions (green) have disappeared since the introduction of IRAs and 401ks (red):<br />
<a data-image-external-href="" data-image-href="/sites/default/files/inline-images/Screen-Shot-2017-11-16.png?itok=Y8SOsi6w" data-link-option="0" href="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/Screen-Shot-2017-11-16.png?itok=Y8SOsi6w"><img alt="" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="575fa864-4fd0-4165-825b-9e014c5aedbd" data-responsive-image-style="inline_images" height="417" src="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/Screen-Shot-2017-11-16.png" srcset="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/Screen-Shot-2017-11-16.png?itok=Y8SOsi6w 1x" typeof="foaf:Image" width="500" /></a><br />
(<a href="https://www.dissentmagazine.org/blog/pension-pinch-united-states-retirement-security-failing">Source</a>)<br />
So, to recap: 40 years ago, a grand experiment was embarked upon. One that promised US workers: <em>Using these new defined contribution vehicles, you'll be better off when you reach retirement age.</em><br />
Which raises a simple but very important question: <em>How have things worked out?</em><br />
<h2>
The Ugly Aftermath</h2>
<h3>
America The Broke</h3>
Well, things haven't worked out too well.<br />
Four decades later, what we're realizing is that this shift from dedicated-contribution pension plans to voluntary private savings was a grand experiment with no assurances. Corporations definitely benefited, as they could redeploy capital to expansion or bottom line profits. But employees? The data certainly seems to show that the experiment did not take human nature into account enough <em>– </em>specifically, the fact that just because people have the option to save money for later use doesn't mean that they actually will.</blockquote>
And so we end up with the dismal retirement stats bulleted above.<br />
<h2>
The Income Haves & Have-Nots</h2>
In our recent report <a href="https://www.peakprosperity.com/blog/114545/primacy-income">The Primacy Of Income</a>, we summarized our years-long predictions of a coming painful market correction followed by a prolonged era of no capital gains across equities, bond and real estate.<br />
Simply put: the 'easy' gains made over the past 8 years as the central banks did their utmost to inflate asset prices is over. Asset appreciation is going to be a lot harder to come by in the future.<br />
Which makes income now the prime source of building -- or simply just maintaining -- wealth going forward.<br />
That being the case, it's obvious that those receiving a pension will be in far better shape than those who aren't. They'll have a guaranteed income stream to partially or fully fund their retirement.<br />
<h3>
Resentment Brewing</h3>
While the total number of people expecting a pension isn't tiny, it's certainly a minority of today's workers.<br />
31 million private-sector, state and local government workers in the US participate in a pension plan. 3.3 million currently-employed civilian Federal workers will receive a pension; as will some percentage of the 2 million people serving in the active military and reserves.<br />
Combined, that's about 25% of current US workers; roughly 13% of total US adults.<br />
Now that <a href="https://www.peakprosperity.com/blog/114604/every-bubble-search-pin">the Everything Bubble is bursting</a> and a return to economic <a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-12-14/cfos-predict-2019-recession-2020-market-crash">recession appears increasingly probable</a> within the next year or two, the disparity in prospects between these 35 million future pensioners and the rest of the workforce will become increasingly obvious.<br />
The danger here is of festering social discord. The majority, whom we already know will not be able to retire, will highly likely start regarding pensioners with envy and resentment.<br />
<em>"Hey, I worked as hard as Joe during my career. How come he gets to retire and I don't?"</em> will be a common narrative running in the minds of those jealous of their neighbors.<br />
This bitterness will only increase as taxes continue to rise to fund government pension payouts, already <a href="https://www.pionline.com/article/20180907/INTERACTIVE/180909890/pension-expenses-drag-on-municipal-expenditures">a huge drain on public budgets</a>. <em>"Why am I paying more so Joe can relax on the beach??"</em><br />
Humans are wired to react angrily to perceived injustice and unfairness. This short clip shows how it's hard-coded into our primate brains:<br />
<iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/meiU6TxysCg" width="560"></iframe><br />
So it's not a stretch at all to predict the divisive tension and prejudice that will result from the growing gap between the pension haves and have-nots.<br />
The negative stereotypes of union workers will be tightly re-embraced. This SNL sketch captures a good number of them:<br />
<iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/_br3uMudQSM" width="560"></iframe><br />
The <a href="https://reason.com/blog/2018/02/05/its-not-enough-to-get-paid-for-not-worki">steady news reports of pension fraud and abuse</a> will anger the majority further. Any projected decreases in Social Security (benefit payouts will only be 79 cents on the dollar by 2035 at our current trajectory) will only exacerbate the ire, as the small governmental income the have-nots receive becomes even more meager.<br />
The growing potential here is for an emerging social schism, possibly accompanied with intimidation and violence, not dissimilar to that which has occurred along racial or religious lines during darker eras of our history.<br />
As people become stressed, they react emotionally, and look for a culprit to blame. And as they become more desperate, as many elderly workers with no savings often do, they'll resort to more desperate measures.<br />
<h3>
Broken Promises</h3>
And it's not all sunshine and roses for the pensioners, either. Being promised a pension and actually receiving one are two very different things.<br />
Underfunded pension liabilities are a massive ticking time bomb, certain to explode over the next few decades.<br />
For example, many pensions offered through multi-employer plans are bad shape. The multiemployer branch of the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation, the federally-instated insurer behind private pensions, will be out of business by 2025 if no changes in law are made to help. If that happens, retirees in those plans will get only 10% of what they were promised.<br />
Moreover, research conducted by the Pew Charitable Trusts shows a <a href="https://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/data-visualizations/2018/state-retirement-fiscal-health-and-funding-discipline#/">$1.4 trillion shortfall</a> between state pension assets and guarantees to employees. There are only two ways a gap that big gets addressed: massive tax hikes or massive benefit cuts. The likeliest outcome will be a combination of both.<br />
So, many of those today counting on a pension tomorrow may find themselves in a similar boat to their pension-less neighbors.<br />
<h2>
No Easy Systemic Solutions, So Act For Yourself</h2>
There's no "fix" to the retirement predicament of the American workforce. There's no policy change that can be made at this late date to reverse the decades of over-spending, over-indebtedness, and lack of saving.<br />
All we can do at this time is influence how we take our licks. Do we simply leave the masses of unprepared workers to their sad fate? Or do we share the pain across the entire populace by funding new social support programs via more taxes?<br />
Time will tell. But what we can bet on is tougher times ahead, especially for those with poor income prospects.<br />
So the smart strategy for the prudent investor is to prioritize building a portfolio of income streams in order to have sufficient dependable income for a sustainable retirement. Or for simply remaining afloat financially.<br />
Sadly, accustomed to the speculative approach marketed to us for so long by the financial industry, most investors are woefully under-educated in how to build a diversified portfolio of passive income streams (inflation-adjusting and tax-deferred whenever possible) over time.<br />
Those looking to get up to speed can read our recent report <a href="https://www.peakprosperity.com/insider/114542/primer-investing-inflation-adjusting-income">A Primer On Investing For Inflation-Adjusting Income</a>, where we detail out the wide range of prevalent (and not-so-prevalent) solutions for today's investors to consider when designing an income-generating portfolio. From bonds, to dividends (common and preferred), to real estate, to royalties -- we explain each vehicle, how it can be used, and what the major benefits and risks are.<br />
And in the interim, make sure the wealth you have accumulated doesn't disappear along with the bursting of the Everything Bubble. If you haven't already read it yet, read our premium report from last week <a href="https://www.peakprosperity.com/insider/114605/what-do-now-big-here">What To Do Now That 'The Big One' Is Here</a>.<br />
<img alt="" height="1" src="https://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~4/AE41f895Btc" width="1" /></div>
KULIONLINEhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07689534547405416862noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1172689132595421539.post-55421999720419046752018-12-16T09:52:00.002+07:002018-12-16T11:04:18.693+07:00"Peak TV": Streaming Originals Overtake Basic Cable<p>A brand new report from FX Research determined that <strong>for the first time, more scripted television shows were released by online streaming platforms like Amazon, Hulu, and Netflix in 2018 than aired on basic cable, pay cable and broadcast television.</strong></p><p>In total, there were 495 scripted shows produced in 2018, and 160 of those or 33% debuted on streaming services, a monumental shift that has big cable worried, reported <a href="https://variety.com/2018/tv/news/number-of-streaming-shows-basic-cable-broadcast-fx-report-1203089218/">Variety</a>.</p><p><a data-image-external-href="" data-image-href="/sites/default/files/inline-images/FX%20Slide%201.png?itok=7mlScbPO" data-link-option="0" href="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/FX%20Slide%201.png?itok=7mlScbPO"><img data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="c1513643-4fb9-4b31-9b3f-7219ec4a87a7" data-responsive-image-style="inline_images" height="362" width="500" srcset="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/FX%20Slide%201.png?itok=7mlScbPO 1x" src="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/FX%20Slide%201.png" alt="" typeof="foaf:Image" /></a></p><p>For comparison, 146 shows or 29.5% aired on broadcast networks like ABC, CBS, and NBC, 144 shows or 29% aired on basic cable channels like Disney and MTV, and about 45 shows or 9% aired on pay cable like HBO and Showtime in 2018.</p><p><strong>While many streaming platforms experienced a jump in output compared to last year, scripted shows on basic cable and broadcast television saw a rapid decline.</strong> Last year, basic cable controlled the largest percentage of scripted show market share, but those times have ended, as originals on streaming platforms are now dominant.</p><p><a data-image-external-href="" data-image-href="/sites/default/files/inline-images/FX%20Slide%202.png?itok=fRpTPY0t" data-link-option="0" href="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/FX%20Slide%202.png?itok=fRpTPY0t"><img data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="f1e041aa-3400-41e6-a9d9-8ce67374a5cd" data-responsive-image-style="inline_images" height="382" width="500" srcset="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/FX%20Slide%202.png?itok=fRpTPY0t 1x" src="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/FX%20Slide%202.png" alt="" typeof="foaf:Image" /></a></p><p>Streaming services last year produced 117 shows compared to 160 this year, a 37% jump in output that has outpaced all traditional broadcasting platforms. Streaming service has come a long way in the last seven years when there were only six streaming shows.</p><p>The total number of shows across all of television was up 1.6%, rising from 487 in 2017 to 495 this year. <strong>Year-to-year growth has plateaued in the last several years, as the television industry has now reached "peak TV."</strong></p><p><a data-image-external-href="" data-image-href="/sites/default/files/inline-images/FX%20Slide%203.png?itok=YZ8AJ5Sn" data-link-option="0" href="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/FX%20Slide%203.png?itok=YZ8AJ5Sn"><img data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="3e37d84e-f24f-450a-ab6b-fc2a165a3eb9" data-responsive-image-style="inline_images" height="384" width="500" srcset="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/FX%20Slide%203.png?itok=YZ8AJ5Sn 1x" src="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/FX%20Slide%203.png" alt="" typeof="foaf:Image" /></a></p><p>Networks like WGN America, MTV, and A&E are dropping scripted television, focusing instead on unscripted reality shows. <strong>Fox has also "geared down on its number of scripted originals, with the network having launched just three new shows this fall with two on deck for midseason,"</strong> said Variety.</p><p>FX CEO John Landgraf famously coined the term "peak TV" several years ago, referring to an overwhelming rise in the number of scripted shows being produced.</p><p>FX Research's study shows that "peak TV" has been reached as the year-to-year growth rate in shows plateaued, but there is a silver lining when the global and US economy rolls over and thousands are laid off. <strong>The unemployed will be able to Netflix and chill with hundreds of shows.</strong></p><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~4/blMfAS-1EUM" height="1" width="1" alt="" />KULIONLINEhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07689534547405416862noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1172689132595421539.post-72990367505273906862018-12-16T09:52:00.001+07:002018-12-16T11:04:19.151+07:00Former FBI SSA Exposes McCabe & Mueller's "Unethtical, Target & Destroy Coercion" Tactics, Defends Flynn<p><a href="https://saraacarter.com/former-fbi-sac-robyn-gritzs-letter-to-judge-sullivan-in-support-of-flynn/"><em>Via SaraCarter.com,</em></a></p><blockquote><p><em><strong>Former FBI Supervisory Special Agent Robyn Gritz has asked <a href="https://saraacarter.com/">SaraACarter.com</a> to post her letter to Judge Emmet G. Sullivan in support of her friend and colleague retired Lt. Gen. Michael T. Flynn, who will be sentenced on Dec. 18.</strong> The Special Counsel’s Office has requested that Flynn not serve any jail time due to his cooperation with Robert Mueller’s office. Based on new information contained in a memorandum submitted to the court this week by Flynn’s attorney, Sullivan has ordered Mueller’s office to turn over all exculpatory evidence and government documents on Flynn’s case by mid-day Friday. Sullivan is also requesting any documentation regarding the first interviews conducted by former anti-Trump agent Peter Strzok and FBI Agent Joe Pientka -known by the FBI as 302s- which were found to be dated more than seven months after the interviews were conducted on Jan. 24, 2017, a violation of FBI policy, say current and former FBI officials familiar with the process. According to information contained in Flynn’s memorandum, the interviews were dated Aug. 22, 2017.</em></p></blockquote><p><a data-image-external-href="" data-image-href="/sites/default/files/inline-images/2018-12-15_17-07-19.jpg?itok=ZGwqjHst" data-link-option="0" href="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/2018-12-15_17-07-19.jpg?itok=ZGwqjHst"><img data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="27203a1b-eb58-40dd-95be-86a1d06a4a6f" data-responsive-image-style="inline_images" height="326" width="500" srcset="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/2018-12-15_17-07-19.jpg?itok=ZGwqjHst 1x" src="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/2018-12-15_17-07-19.jpg" alt="" typeof="foaf:Image" /></a></p><p><em>Read Gritz’s letter below... (emphasis added)</em></p><p><em>The Honorable Emmet G. Sullivan. December 5, 2018 U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia</em></p><p><em>333 Constitution Avenue, N.W.</em></p><p><em>Washington D.C. 20001</em></p><h2><strong><em>Re: Sentencing of Lt. General Michael T. Flynn (Ret.)</em></strong></h2><p><em>Dear Judge Sullivan:</em></p><p><strong><em>I am submitting my letter directly since Mike Flynn’s attorney has refused to submit it as well as letters submitted by other individuals. I feel you need to hear from someone who was an FBI Special Agent who not only worked with Mike, but also has personally witnessed and reported unethical & sometimes illegal tactics used to coerce targets of investigations externally and internally.</em></strong></p><h3><strong>About Myself and FBI Career</strong></h3><p>For 16 years, I proudly served the American people as a Special Agent working diligently on significant terrorism cases which earned noteworthy results and fostered substantial interagency cooperation. Prior to serving in the FBI I was a Juvenile Probation Officer in Camden, NJ. Currently, I am a Senior Information Security Metrics and Reporting Analyst with Discover Financial Services in the Chicago Metro area. I have recently been named as a Senior Fellow to the London Center for Policy Research.</p><p>While in the FBI, I served as a Special Agent, Supervisory Special Agent, Assistant Inspector, Unit Chief, and a Senior Liaison Officer to the CIA. I served on the NSC’s Hostage and Personnel Working Group and brought numerous Americans out of captivity and was part of the interagency team to codify policies outlining the whole of government approach to hostage cases.</p><p>In November 2007, I was selected over 26 other candidates to become the Supervisory Special Agent, CT Extraterritorial Squad; Washington Field Office (WFO) in Washington, DC. At WFO, I led a squad of experts in extraterritorial evidence collection, overseas investigations, operational security during terrorist attacks/events, and overseas criminal investigations. I coordinated and managed numerous high profile investigations (Blackwater, Chuckie Taylor, Robert Levinson, and other pivotal cases) comprised of teams from US and foreign intelligence, military, and law enforcement agencies. I was commended for displaying comprehensive leadership performance under pressure, extensive teamwork skills, while conducting critical investigative analysis within and outside the FBI.</p><p>In December 2009, I was promoted to GS-15 Unit Chief (UC) of the Executive Strategy Unit, Weapons of Mass Destruction Directorate (WMDD). While the UC, I codified the WMDD five-year strategic plan, formulated goals and objectives throughout the division, while translating the material into a directorate scorecard with cascading measurements reflecting functional and operational unit areas. This was the only time in Washington, DC when I did not work with of for McCabe.</p><p>From September to December 2010, I was selected as the FBI’s top candidate to represent the FBI, and the USG in a rigorous, intellectually stimulating; 12 week course for civilian government officials, military officers, and government academics at the George C. Marshall Center in Garmisch, Germany, Executive Program in Advanced Security Studies. The class was comprised of 141 participants from 43 countries.</p><p>I have received numerous recommendations and commendations for my professionalism, liaison and interpersonal ability and experience<strong>. </strong>Additionally, I have been rated Excellent or Outstanding for my entire career, to include by Andrew McCabe when I was stationed at the Washington Field Office. Further, other awards of note are: West Chester University 2005 Legacy of Leadership recipient, Honored with House of Representatives Citation for Exemplary record of Service, Leadership, and Achievements: Commonwealth of Pennsylvania, and Awarded with a framed Horn of Africa blood chit from the Department of Defense and Office of the DASD (POW/MPA/MIA) for my work in bringing Americans Out of captivity, “Patriot, Law Enforcement Warrior, and Friend.”</p><h3><u><strong>Length of Association with Flynn, McCabe, and Mueller</strong></u></h3><p><strong>I met Michael Flynn in 2005,</strong> while working in the Counterterrorism Division (CTD) at FBI Headquarters (FBIHQ).</p><p><strong>I met then Supervisory Special Agent Andrew McCabe, when he reported to CTD at FBIHQ, around the same time. </strong> McCabe subsequently was the Assistant Section Chief over my unit, my Assistant Special Agent in Charge at the Washington Field Office, and the Assistant Director (AD) over CTD when I encountered the discrimination and McCabe spearheaded the retaliation personally (according to documentation) against me.</p><p><u><em><strong>I have known both men for 12-13 years and worked directly with both throughout my career. They are on the opposite spectrum of each other with regard to truthfulness, temperament, and ethics, both professionally and personally.</strong></em></u></p><p>I regularly briefed former FBI Director and Special Prosecutor Mueller on controversial and complex cases and attended Deputies meetings at the White house with then Deputy Director Pistole. I got along with both and trusted both. <em><strong>Watching what has been done to Mike and knowing someone on the 7th floor had to have notified Mueller of my situation (Pistole had retired), has been significantly distressing to me.</strong></em></p><h3><u><strong>Lt.G. Michael T. Flynn:</strong></u></h3><p><strong>Mike and I were counterparts on a DOJ-termed ground-breaking initiative which served as a model for future investigations, policies, legislation and FBI programs in the Terrorist Use of the Internet.</strong> For this multi-faceted and leading-edge joint operation, I was commended by Gen. Stanley McChrystal, Gen. Keith Alexander (NSA Director), and LtG. Michael Flynn as well as others for leading the FBI’s pivotal participation in this dynamic and innovative interagency operation. I received two The National Intelligence Meritorious Unit Citation (NIMUC) I for my role in this operation. The NIMUC is an award of the National Intelligence Awards Program, for contributions to the United States Intelligence Community.</p><p><strong>Mick Flynn has consistently and candidly been honest and straightforward with me since the day I met him in 2005. He has been a mentor and someone I trust to give me frank advice when I ask for his opinion. </strong> His caring nature has shown through especially when he saw me being torn apart by the FBI and he felt compelled to write a letter in support of me. He further took the extra step to comment on my character in an NPR article and interview exposing the wrongdoings in my case and others who have stood up for truth and against discrimination/retaliation. Senator Grassley also commented on my behalf. NPR characterized this action against me as a “warning shot” to individuals who stood up to individuals such as McCabe.</p><p>The day after I resigned from the FBI, while I was crying, Mike reached out and congratulated me on my early retirement. I really needed to hear that from someone I respected so much. <strong>His support for the last 13 years has been unparalleled and extremely valuable in helping me get through the trauma of betrayal, unethical behavior, illegal activity executed against me and to rebuild my life.</strong> Additionally, his support has helped my family in dealing with their painful emotions regarding my situation. My parents wanted me to pass on to you that they are blessed that I have had a compassionate and supportive individual on my side throughout this trying time.</p><p>Mike has been a respected leader by his peers and by FBI Agents and Analysts who have interacted with him. I personally feel he is the finest leader I have ever worked with or for in my career. Our continued friendship and subsequent friendship with his family has helped all of us cope with the stress a situation like this puts on individuals and families.</p><p><strong>It is so very painful to watch an American hero, and my friend, torn apart like this. </strong> His family has had to endure what no family should have to. I know this because of the damaging effect my case had on my parent’s health, finances, and emotional well-being. Mike and I both had to sell our houses due to legal fees, endured smear campaigns (mostly by the same individual, McCabe). I ended up being deemed homeless by the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania, was on public assistance and endured extensive health and emotional damage due to the retaliation. Mike kept in touch and kept me motivated. He has always reached out to help me with whatever he could.</p><h3><u><strong>The Process is the Punishment</strong></u></h3><p>Thomas Fitton of Judicial Watch commented to me that the “Process is the punishment.” <strong>This is the most accurate description I have heard regarding the time Mike has gone through with this process and the year and a half I was ostracized and idled before I resigned. </strong> This process is one which many FBI employees, current, retired and former, feel was brought to the FBI by Mueller and he subsequently brought this to the Special Prosecutor investigation. It also fostered the behavior among FBI “leadership” which we find ourselves shocked at when revealed on a daily basis. Is this the proper way to seek justice? I say no. I swore to uphold the Constitution while protecting the civil rights of the American people. <u><em><strong>I believe many individuals involved in Mike’s case have lost their way and could care less about protection of due process, civil and legal rights of who they are targeting.</strong></em></u> Mike has had extensive punishment throughout this process. This process has punished him harder than anyone else could.</p><h3><u><strong>Andrew McCabe</strong></u></h3><p><strong>I believe I have a unique inside view of the mannerisms surrounding Andrew McCabe, other FBI Executive Management and Former Director Mueller, as well as the unethical and coercive tactics they use, not to seek the truth, but to coerce pleas or admissions to end the pain, as I call it.</strong> They destroy lives for their own agendas instead of seeking the truth for the American people. Candor is something that should be encouraged and used by leadership to have necessary and continued improvement. Under Mueller, it was seen as a threat and viciously opposed by those he pulled up in the chain of command.</p><p><strong>I am explaining this because numerous Agents have expressed the need for you to know McCabe’s and Mueller’s pattern of “target and destroy” has been utilized on many others, without regard for policies and laws.</strong> I, myself, am a casualty of this reprehensible behavior and I have spoken to well over 150 other FBI individuals who are casualties as well.</p><p><strong>I am the individual who filed the Hatch Act complaint against McCabe and provided significant evidentiary documents obtained via FOIA, open source, and information from current, former, and retired Special Agents.</strong> The Office of Special Counsel (OSC) asked why my filing of the complaint was delayed from the actual acts. I said I personally thought I was providing additional information to what should have been an automatic referral to OSC by FBI OPR. I was notified I was the only complainant. This illustrates not only a fatal flaw in OPR AD Candice Will not making the appropriate and crucial referral, but also shows the fear of those within the FBI to report individuals like McCabe for fear of retaliation.</p><p>While serving at the CIA, detailed by the FBI in January 2012, I was responsible for overseas investigations, as opposed to Continental United States-based (CONUS) cases. Unfortunately, during my assignment at the CIA, I encountered extensive discrimination by two FBI Special Agents and subsequently, in 2012, I filed an Equal Employment Opportunity (EEO) complaint. Instead of addressing the issues, then CTD Assistant Director Andrew McCabe chose to authorize a retaliatory Office of Professional Responsibility (OPR) investigation against me, five days after my EEO contact. The OPR referral he signed was authored by the two individuals I had filed the EEO complaint against. In his signed sworn statement, McCabe admitted he knew I had filed or was going to file the EEO.</p><p>Numerous members of my department at the CIA requested to be spoken with by CTD executive management, regarding my work ethic and accomplishments. However, CTD, Inspection Division, and OPR disregarded the list of names and contact numbers I submitted. This is an example of knowing you are being targeted and the truth is not being sought.</p><p>Although my time at this position was short, I was commended by my CIA direct supervisor for: “having already contributed more than your predecessor in the short time you have been here.” My predecessor had been assigned to the post for 18 months; I had been there four months.</p><p><strong>In contrast and showing lack of candor, McCabe wrote on official documents the following statement, contradicting the actual direct supervisor I worked with daily:</strong></p><blockquote><p>“SA Gritz had to be removed from a prior position in an interagency environment, due to inappropriate communications and general performance issues”</p></blockquote><p>This is one of many comments McCabe used to discredit my reputation and to ostracize me. McCabe knew me as someone who told the truth, worked hard, got results, and was always willing to be flexible when needed. He was also acutely aware of the excellent relationships I had formed in the USG interagency due to comments made by individuals from numerous agencies. Yet, he continued to make false statements on official documents. He has done this to numerous other very valuable FBI employees, destroying their careers and lives. He used similar tactics of lies against Flynn. It should be noted, McCabe was very aware of my professional association with Mike Flynn.</p><p><strong>In July 5, 2012, I was involuntarily pulled back to CTD from the CIA. I was told McCabe made the decision. A year and a month later, I resigned from the job I absolutely loved and was good at. All because of the lack of candor of numerous individuals within the FBI.</strong></p><h3><u><strong>Unethical and dishonest investigative tactics</strong></u></h3><p>Throughout the last year, I have kept abreast of the revelations surrounding anything related to Mike’s case. I believe, from my years at the FBI and in exposing corruption and discrimination, the circumstances surrounding the targeting, investigation, leaking, and coercion of him to plea are all consistent with the unethical process I and many others have witnessed at the FBI. The charge which Mike Flynn plead to was the result of deception, intimidation, and bias/agenda. Simply, Mike is being branded a convicted felon due to an unethical and dishonest investigation by people who were malicious, vindictive, and corrupt. They wished to silence Mike, like they had once silenced me.</p><p><strong>The American people have read the Strzok/Page text messages, the conflicting testimony and lack of candor statements of former Director Comey, the perceived overstepping of the reasonable scope of the Special Prosecutor’s investigation, the extensive unethical, untruthful, and outright illegal behavior of Andrew McCabe, to include slanderous statements against Flynn, and the facts found within FOIA released documents and Congressional testimony.</strong> As a former/retired Agent, I have combed through every piece of information regarding Mike’s case, as if I was combing through evidence in the hundreds of cases I have successfully handled while in the FBI.</p><p>The publicly reported Brady material alone, in this case, outweighs any statement given by any FBI Agent (we now know at least one FD-302 was changed), Special Prosecutor investigator report, and any other party still aggressively seeking that this case remain and be sentenced as a felony. Quite simply, I cannot see justice being served by branding LtG. Michael Flynn a convicted felon, when the truth is still being revealed while policies, ethics, and laws have been violated by those pursuing this case.</p><p><strong>We now know all FBI employees involved in Mike Flynn’s case have either been fired, forced to resign or forced to retire because of their excessive lack of candor, punitive biases, leaking of information, and extensive cover-up of their deeds.</strong></p><h3><u><strong>Summation</strong></u></h3><p><strong>Michael Flynn has always displayed overwhelming candor and forthrightness. </strong> One of the main individuals involved in his case is Andrew McCabe, who used similar tactics against me in my case, of which Mike Flynn defended me by penning a letter of character reference and is a witness. Seeing McCabe was named as a Responding Management Official in my case, he should have recused himself with anything having to do with a character witness on my behalf against him and DOJ.</p><p>I’m told by numerous people, but have been unable to confirm, that McCabe was asked why he was so viciously going after Flynn; my name was mentioned. <strong>I do know, from experience with McCabe, he is a vindictive individual and I have no doubt Mike’s support of me fueled McCabe’s disdain and personally vindictive aggressive unethical activities in this case</strong>. It matches his behavior in my case.</p><p>Reliable fact-finding is essential to procedural due process and to the accuracy and uniformity of sentencing. I’m unsure if the fact-finding in this case is reliable, nor do I think we currently have all the facts.</p><p><strong>The punishment which LtG. Flynn has already endured this past year, due to the nature of the case, legal fees and reputation damage, is punishment enough.</strong> He is a true patriot, a loving husband and father, a devoted grandfather, a trusted friend, and has a close knit family made up of compassionate and honest individuals. To be branded a felon, is a major hit to a hero who protected the American people for 33 years. I do not think society would benefit from Mike Flynn going to jail nor being branded as a convicted felon. Not knowing the sentencing guidelines for this charge but if there is any chance that the case can be downgraded to a misdemeanor, this would be an act of justice that numerous Americans need to see to stay hopeful for further justice.</p><p><em>Respectfully yours,</em></p><p><em>Robyn L. Gritz</em></p><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~4/D3IMKN5okn0" height="1" width="1" alt="" />KULIONLINEhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07689534547405416862noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1172689132595421539.post-71199329786570436072018-12-16T09:52:00.000+07:002018-12-16T11:04:19.053+07:00Robot Trucks Coming To US Army in 2019 <p><strong>The US Army has recently stated that two transportation battalions will receive a fleet of autonomous leader-follower vehicles by summer 2019. </strong>This is a developing theme in the service of 'take the man out of the machine’ has led to a new era of autonomous systems entering the modern battlefield as the Pentagon prepares for the next series of conflicts. </p><blockquote><p>“The Ground Vehicle Systems Center’s work with the Robotic Operating System – Military (ROS-M) <strong>covers a spectrum of autonomy and robotics, including small explosive ordnance disposal-assist robots</strong> that have been fielded as part of the advanced leader-follower capabilities that Soldiers in two transportation battalions will see by summer 2019,” said an article published in the January – March 2019 issue of Army AL&T magazine.</p></blockquote><p><a data-image-external-href="" data-image-href="/sites/default/files/inline-images/robot%20truck.png?itok=MAginxAU" data-link-option="0" href="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/robot%20truck.png?itok=MAginxAU"><img data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="49a1550b-dc2a-4d41-96f2-89a33a2cbdd6" data-responsive-image-style="inline_images" height="278" width="500" srcset="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/robot%20truck.png?itok=MAginxAU 1x" src="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/robot%20truck.png" alt="" typeof="foaf:Image" /></a></p><p>According to the Defence Blog, <strong>the ROS-M "uses an open-source approach and a widely accepted software framework with common government and industry software to develop military robotics and autonomous systems.</strong> The open-source approach allows developers to create software modules for different applications and enables integrators to build modular systems using the best software modules available for military autonomous systems."</p><p><a data-image-external-href="" data-image-href="/sites/default/files/inline-images/robot%20truck%202.jpg?itok=s8sKhJWH" data-link-option="0" href="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/robot%20truck%202.jpg?itok=s8sKhJWH"><img data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="1d5b5ef6-33e9-4619-92be-2bfbd60ffc6d" data-responsive-image-style="inline_images" height="333" width="500" srcset="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/robot%20truck%202.jpg?itok=s8sKhJWH 1x" src="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/robot%20truck%202.jpg" alt="" typeof="foaf:Image" /></a></p><p>During the Afghan war, the Army consumed around 45 million gallons of fuel per month; the human cost was one death or injury for every 24 fuel convoys brought in. </p><p><strong>Pentagon figures show in 2013 alone, about 60% of US combat causalities were related to convoy resupply.</strong></p><p>In the post IED era, removing the human element from the supply chain has been a significant focus for the Army and the primary driver for developing new autonomous systems.</p><p><a data-image-external-href="" data-image-href="/sites/default/files/inline-images/robot%20truck%203.png?itok=_pgqGnkj" data-link-option="0" href="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/robot%20truck%203.png?itok=_pgqGnkj"><img data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="88aa8cd9-a845-4768-a3ee-f48da75f0973" data-responsive-image-style="inline_images" height="237" width="500" srcset="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/robot%20truck%203.png?itok=_pgqGnkj 1x" src="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/robot%20truck%203.png" alt="" typeof="foaf:Image" /></a></p><p>Robotic vehicles can help the Army in multiple ways: <strong>"It eliminates the need for Soldiers to conduct mundane, dangerous or repetitive tasks that can be automated, and it increases the standoff distance between Soldiers and a threat, which can greatly enhance safety. Additionally, automation can increase logistics on convoy missions," said the Defense Blog.</strong></p><p>For example, two soldiers can operate an entire convoy that usually requires dozens of soldiers or about two per vehicle. This frees up soldiers to conduct other missions, and or tasks that involve defending the caravan from enemy forces. </p><p>The Army is expected to procure the autonomous vehicles sometime in 2019. Robots will take the place of humans in ground-based resupply missions. These autonomous vehicles will be used for delivering ammunition, fuel, weapons, and casualty evacuation. </p><p><iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/n1r1AzWJ-qY" width="560"></iframe></p><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~4/bz82Yf5H1JE" height="1" width="1" alt="" />KULIONLINEhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07689534547405416862noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1172689132595421539.post-56093907557899814022018-12-16T07:52:00.003+07:002018-12-16T11:04:18.740+07:00Hanson: House Prices Are More Vulnerable Than Most Think<p><em>Submitted by <a href="https://mhanson.com/12-14-18-hanson-house-prices-are-more-vulnerable-than-most-think/">Mark Hanson Advisors</a></em></p><p><strong>Dear Fellow Housing Market Observers,</strong></p><p>This is my last note of the year and it deals with house prices into the next cycle.</p><p>There are numerous similarities between the Bubble 1.0 era and the past several years. This essay reviews Bubble 1.0 and the present and draws on key parallels that drove house prices that few ever point out (i.e., this time demand wasn’t a feature of surging house prices; this time houses have been a forced savings account, which are key differentiators).</p><p>Even if house prices in the CS 20 drop 10% to 20%, I am not sure what that means in the context of record untapped home equity (as opposed to last bubble when everybody could extract every dollar of equity all the way up), a solid employment and wage backdrop, rates that have likely topped and technology that will blow open the buy-box in the next couple of years to include those 10s of millions with irregular income or artificially low credit scores.</p><p>I do, however, have a better idea on what this means to pure-play housing, finance, related-retail, appliance, etc, which I will be focusing on in 2019 along with my favorite tech, fintech and advanced credit companies aiming to add liquidity to the housing market and dive into Opportunity Zone ideas.</p><p>There are some great trades to be had.</p><p>Mark</p><p>* * *</p><p><strong>The “Mortgage Loan House Price Governor” has been strapped on again.</strong></p><p>The common thesis is that “it’s different this time”; house prices are largely protected from a sharp downturn like from 2008 to 2010 because post-crash lending has been conservative, buyers didn’t get over their ski’s, employment is strong, home-equity is at record highs and there have no exotic loans originated than can blow-up borrowers.</p><p>While all that may be true and sensical, end-users getting mortgages to buy their shelter homes aren’t the ones who provided most of the energy that pushed house prices past peak-2007 bubble levels in key regions from coast to coast.</p><p>I operate on the thesis that <strong>house prices will always gravitate to “end-user, mortgage-needing, shelter buyer” cohort</strong> affordability – based on ‘local’ employment, income & credit fundamentals and market rates – using a typical 30-yr mortgage & minimal down payment.</p><p>At times prices can detach from these fundamentals like from 2002-07 when “unorthodox demand using unorthodox capital & credit” became the main driver. But, they always reattach over time.</p><p>Case in point when all the high-leverage loan programs went away at the exact same time in 2007-08 and prices reattached to end-user fundamentals and traditional 30-year fixed-rate loans, which resulted in a 30%+ price drop.</p><p>But the 2011 to 2016 era wasn’t dissimilar from the 2002-2007 bubble. That is, “<strong>unorthodox demand using unorthodox capital & credit</strong>” became the main driver of demand and house prices…all those buy-to-rent, flip and floppers; institutions; foreign lock boxes; money laundering schemes; and EB5’s.</p><p>And based on the historical divergence between end-user affordability and <strong>house prices in top metros in the nation today house prices could fall at least 30% and only be fairly-valued</strong>. I have plenty of local level data & models proving this.</p><p>Unless rates fall/incomes rise sharply; the mortgage sector introduces higher leverage programs; unorthodox demand rushes back; or the sector evolves intelligently to include 10s of millions of prime-risk credits left out of the prohibitive FICO/DTI based credit boxes (this IS coming, but it might not be soon enough) my thesis will be tested soon.</p><p><strong>The “Mortgage Loan House Price Governor”</strong></p><p><strong>1) In a normal housing market</strong> — ~ 80% of all purchases to end-users most using “full-doc” mortgage loans — prices are solidly rooted to end-user economic fundamentals. That is, the mortgage loan with its LTV and DTI guidelines is the “house-price governor”; it’s virtually impossible for house prices to detach from local economic employment and income fundamentals unless credit goes haywire. Sure, there have exceptions to this over the decades. But, overall housing has been a pretty simple asset class that for decades leading into the change of the millennium remained mostly in-check to fundamentals and a great inflation hedge.</p><p><strong>2) Enter 2003 to 2007</strong>, when the “<strong>mortgage-loan, house-price governor</strong>” – a term I coined — was removed by the introduction and wide acceptance of exotic loans; i.e., stated-income for wage earners, interest only, pay-option arms, etc. Through the power of high-leverage lending the ‘incremental buyer’ always earned $200k a year and had a million dollars in the bank when it came to qualifying for a loan to buy a house…credit went ‘haywire’. This allowed house prices to completely detach from end-user fundamentals.</p><p>In 2008, when the mortgage loan governor was strapped back on – due to the sudden loss of all the exotic loans over a short period of time — house prices quickly “reset to end-user, employment and income fundamentals”. House prices stopped plunging in 2010, as affordability using new-era 30-year fixed rate, fully-documented loans recoupled with real income and asset levels.</p><p>This “bottom” should have set the stage for housing to once again be rooted to fundamentals / governed by contemporary mortgage lending guidelines.</p><p>But, that didn’t happen.</p><p><strong>3) Enter the mortgage mod craze</strong>. Millions of the worst mortgage offenders and house over-spenders were bailed-out through Government and bank sponsored 2% interest-only mortgage mods, so exotic they would have made Lehman and Bear blush.</p><p>Instead of these homeowners experiencing foreclosure, renting, replenishing savings and becoming de-levered, credit-worthy boomerang buyers down the road several years, they got to squat in their own home at 2% interest only for five years before their rates started adjusted higher, squeezing them all over again. In fact, mod annual rate increases began in earnest in 2016 and are still occurring every year.</p><p><strong>4) Don’t forget in places like the Bay Area</strong> how tech companies with double-decker busses have been exporting high Bay Area incomes to adjacent counties an hour or two away where the native population makes half as much. This artificially pushes prices up in the metro periphery, forces out legacy owners and is an implosion waiting to happen in the next employment cycle downturn because the local economies don’t support house prices 50% higher than local employment and income fundamentals.</p><p><strong>5) But, overshadowing all this, from 2010 to 2016, the “all-cash”, new-era “spec-vestor” phenomena developed,</strong> which in my eyes was a repeat of the 2003 to 2007 exotic loan era in the effect it had on house prices. That’s because the incremental (almost majority) all-cash buyers work without a ‘house price governor’, instead base their purchase and pricing decisions on individual, random, emotional, uneducated, criminal or hopeful models or guesses.</p><p>Some bought for rental income, some for appreciation, others to flip, flop, hide money from foreign governments, or to simply beat the yield of a 2% 10-year Treasury. In any case, without a mortgage loan governor the “price” they pay for a house is often subjective vs objective.</p><p>Most analysts disregard the all-cash investor demand and supply cohort because they look at companies like Blackstone and Starwood and say, “these institutions only own 500k houses, not enough to make a difference”.</p><p>But what they fail to take into consideration is that those 500k houses are highly concentrated within eight to ten major metros. Furthermore, all of the other spec-vestor cohorts – like small two to ten house independent speculators – out purchased institutions by ten-fold from 2011 to 2016. In fact, there have been over six million single family homes taken out of the end-user owner category and turned into rentals, thus the “lack of supply” screed, artificial as it may be, everybody repeated for years.</p><p>In the “all-cash”, “spec-vestor” segment, it was very easy to overpay for a house by 20% or 30% in the heat of the deal and when competing against a dozen other all-cash buyers. This is impossible if end-users, mortgage loans and appraisals are required because when end-users overpay, or bid higher than the appraised value, they must come up with the difference in cash, which few have.</p><p>As the bubble blew in key markets around the nation and prices become ever further detached from end-user fundamentals there were always greater fools that chased the market keeping it elevated for a period. But, outside of the all-cash cohort the number is finite.</p><p>Some will say “all-cash buyers for rentals are rooted to fundamentals…that’s rents”. I say “hogwash”. I have seen many of the single-family rental assumption models from some of the largest investors, and they are beyond rosy. I can easily change two numbers and turn their 6% cap rate into an 6% loss.</p><p><u><u><strong>Bottom line:</strong></u></u> It was very easy for demand cohorts – as large as this era’s all-cash insti, private and foreign segments – to push national house prices well above what the average end-user can pay.</p><p>And that’s exactly what happened from 2011-16 and why in leading indicating regions from coast to coast in which new-era investors flocked first, demand is plunging and supply surging against a backdrop of rising rates. <strong>Just like in 2006/7.</strong></p><p>If history rhymes at all, <strong>house prices have already gapped down — the lagging indices just haven’t printed it yet — and house prices are more vulnerable than most think.</strong></p><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~4/NflXNfz79lc" height="1" width="1" alt="" />KULIONLINEhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07689534547405416862noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1172689132595421539.post-70742532229662715172018-12-16T07:52:00.002+07:002018-12-16T11:04:19.029+07:00Rich Americans Say Money Trumps Love In Relationships<p><a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-30/affluent-americans-rank-money-higher-than-love-when-coupling-up">Bloomberg</a> has obtained a new report that <strong>reveals the truth about money and relationships in the upper echelon of society.</strong></p><p>When searching for a significant other, <strong><em>56% of rich Americans want someone with wealth, versus 44% who want to be “head over heels” in love</em></strong>, according to 1,000 respondents surveyed by Bank of America Corp.’s Merrill Edge.</p><p><a data-image-external-href="" data-image-href="/sites/default/files/inline-images/wealthly.jpg?itok=bxUnVqyt" data-link-option="0" href="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/wealthly.jpg?itok=bxUnVqyt"><img data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="62611773-f009-4755-8ec6-78c7ec51102d" data-responsive-image-style="inline_images" height="262" width="500" srcset="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/wealthly.jpg?itok=bxUnVqyt 1x" src="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/wealthly.jpg" alt="" typeof="foaf:Image" /></a></p><p><strong>“There’s a level of realism” for couples who face economic uncertainty and a lack of financial planning,</strong> said Aron Levine, head of consumer banking and Merrill Edge, which offers online investing. “How do you keep the love of your life if you can’t pay for a vacation?” he told Bloomberg.</p><p>The survey showed respondents heavily scrutinized the finances of potential partners, as many did not actively discuss their financial situation including addressing debt loads, salary, investments and spending habits with significant others.</p><p>Additional findings in the report include:</p><ul><li><p><em>Affluent Americans are willing to put aside an average of $18,000 a year on saving and investing, more than they want to spend on rent or mortgage payments, their children’s education or travel.</em></p></li><li><p><em>The majority of respondents has no monetary goal in mind for milestones such as getting married or having a baby.</em></p></li><li><p><em>Almost three-quarters of respondents expect to get their investment guidance primarily through digital channels within five years.</em></p></li></ul><p>Bloomberg notes the survey was conducted from Sept. 27 to Oct. 13, were mainly millennials (18 to 40 years old) with investable assets of $50,000 to $250,000, or investable assets of $20,000 to $50,000 and an annual income of at least $50,000. For those older than 40, respondents had investable assets of $50,000 to $250,000.</p><p>For the 44 million Americans (mostly millennials) that have student loan debt and face a future of economic uncertainties, <strong>it seems that the longstanding institution of marriage could become a thing of the past, all because money talks</strong> - especially in relationships.</p><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~4/foJARWB4V1Q" height="1" width="1" alt="" />KULIONLINEhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07689534547405416862noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1172689132595421539.post-42783561103290334012018-12-16T07:52:00.001+07:002018-12-16T11:04:18.501+07:00US Medicare-For-All & Big-Tech: The Future Of Mass Patient Surveillance<p><a href="https://mises.org/wire/state-influencing-big-techs-unpersoning-imagine-if-it-take-overs-healthcare-0?utm_source=samizdat&utm_medium=partner&utm_campaign=free"><em>Authored by Tho Bishop via The Mises Institute,</em></a></p><p>As tech executives continue to be grilled in front of Congress, the growing Bernie Sanders-wing of the Democratic Party is preparing to push its misnamed “Medicare for All” into the political mainstream after its political gains in the midterms. <strong>While these two stories seem to have very little in common, it’s not difficult to imagine a not-so-distant future where the two are dangerously connected.</strong> After all, so long as the scope of government grows, the continued politicization of all aspects of life will follow – <strong>the inevitable consequences of which could be quite horrific.</strong></p><p><a data-image-external-href="" data-image-href="/sites/default/files/inline-images/GettyImages-910488902_0.jpg?itok=5WbHkBJE" data-link-option="0" href="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/GettyImages-910488902_0.jpg?itok=5WbHkBJE"><img data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="fe7d362f-dfc1-482c-9559-8a54845d6dec" data-responsive-image-style="inline_images" height="333" width="500" srcset="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/GettyImages-910488902_0.jpg?itok=5WbHkBJE 1x" src="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/GettyImages-910488902_0.jpg" alt="" typeof="foaf:Image" /></a></p><h3><u>The State’s Shadow over Silicon Valley</u></h3><p><strong>First let’s consider some of the overlooked causes behind the increased censorship from Silicon Valley.</strong></p><p>While Republican politicians relish in collecting cheap soundbites railing against the censorship practices of widely despised tech executives, <strong>few are willing to point out the obvious influence of government in Big Tech’s growing hostility to free speech.</strong></p><p>For example, just recently Facebook announced it was following the lead of Tumblr by cracking down on “sexualized content” on its platform. While both decisions were widely ridiculed by users and pundits alike, largely ignored was the role that recent Congressional <a href="https://mises.org/wire/SESTA%20%5d">laws aimed at cracking down on sex trafficking</a> played in sparking the new policy. Similarly, “anti-hate speech” laws from Europe had very real consequences for American social media users as mechanisms designed to police speech oversees are inevitably used to manage content throughout their global communities.</p><p><strong>While tech censorship began with isolated bans on individual social media platforms, it has evolved over time into a far more sinister crackdown of modern-day thought criminals.</strong> Alex Jones, for example, saw multiple social media accounts closed in a coordinated campaign earlier this year in what’s been likened to a modern version of Orwell’s “unpersoning.” Increasingly we are seeing financial services platforms, such as PayPal and Patreon, become another particularly effective form of censorship for those found guilty of violating the norms of political correctness.</p><p><strong>The traditional libertarian response to these issues is to simply build another platform, but that seems increasingly impotent in the face of the union between Big Tech and state.</strong></p><p>Gab, for example, is a product that arose in direct response to increased censorship on Twitter. The app has found itself deplatformed from both major phone app stores, even before user <a href="https://www.axios.com/social-network-gab-under-scrutiny-in-wake-of-pittsburgh-shooting-fcef4772-15f2-4b97-a000-14cf5e5187bc.html">Robert Barnes killed 11 people at a Pennsylvania synagogue earlier this year</a> and <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/pennsylvania-shooting-gab/gab-com-fights-to-stay-online-after-pittsburgh-synagogue-shooting-idUSL2N1X809T">heightened law enforcement’s attention</a> to the site. It’s worth noting that Facebook, <a href="https://www.theverge.com/2018/4/11/17219930/facebook-campaign-contributions-mark-zuckerberg-congress-donations">a prolific donor to America’s political class</a>, did not receive similar treatment when it was used to <a href="https://www.wired.com/2017/04/facebook-live-murder-steve-stephens/">broadcast torture and murder</a>. Similarly, cryptocurrency exchanges have faced backlash from <a href="https://mises.org/wire/next-generation-currency-wars-private-vs-state-backed-crypto">government officials</a>, <a href="https://techcrunch.com/2018/02/05/visa-and-mastercard-make-it-harder-to-buy-bitcoin-and-other-cryptocurrencies/">traditional financial services companies</a>, and <a href="https://www.recode.net/2018/1/30/16950926/facebook-mark-zuckerberg-bans-crypto-advertising-bitcoin-james-altucher">tech companies</a> in their effort to build alternatives to state-controlled financial networks.</p><p><strong>Of course the answer to this new era of Big Brother (<a href="https://twitter.com/SenGillibrand/status/1070106980298186753">Sister?</a>) isn’t <a href="https://mises.org/power-market/big-tech-has-big-problems-more-regulation-will-only-hurt-consumers">government regulation</a>, as many on the populist right advocate.</strong> The history of government involvement in communication platforms <a href="https://mises.org/library/spectrum-should-be-private-property-economics-history-and-future-wireless-technology">has been one of increased censorship</a>. Instead, the best way to confront the Silicon Valley’s censorship is to recognize the inherently perverse influence of government and pursue a separation of tech and state. For example, attack all forms of state privileges enjoyed by companies that don’t recognize freedom of speech: such as government contracts, and liability waivers. Additionally, allow private citizens to sue when companies violate their terms of service or mislabel themselves as “open platforms.”</p><h3><u>Socialism and Political Correctness are a Dangerous Mix</u></h3><p><strong>Unfortunately instead of working to depoliticize tech, it’s far more likely that we will see increased politicization of other vital parts of American life – and perhaps none is more dangerous than that applied to healthcare.</strong></p><p>While it is easy to mock the economic illiteracy of <a href="https://mises.org/power-market/what-bernie-sanders-and-alexandria-ocasio-cortez-need-learn-about-income-inequality">politicians like Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez</a>, there is no question that her brand of democratic socialism is growing in popularity – and not just on the left. It’s worth remembering that only a few years ago candidate Donald Trump <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2017/05/05/trumps-forbidden-love-singe-payer-health-care/">gave his own endorsement</a> to a healthcare vision similar to that held by AOC and Bernie Sanders. </p><p><strong>Consider the troubling potential of a progressive government that drops all pretense of valuing free speech, and then giving that government complete control of the healthcare system.</strong></p><p>While this perhaps sounds like the makings of an outlandish dystopian novel, imagine the sort of policies we’ve already seen come from the executive branch. Under the Obama Administration, we saw <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/05/us/politics/irs-targeting-tea-party-liberals-democrats.html">the use of the IRS</a>, <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/peterjreilly/2013/05/23/tea-party-demonstrations-and-homeland-security-another-non-event/">Department of Homeland Security</a>, and <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2017/09/18/politics/paul-manafort-government-wiretapped-fisa-russians/index.html">even intelligence agencies</a> to target and punish political opponents. Meanwhile, the progressive left has increasingly identified those who believe the “wrong ideas” – <a href="https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2017/sep/11/climate-change-activists-want-punishment-for-skept/">such as skeptics of anthropogenic climate change</a> – as dangerous threats guilty of the crimes equivalent to murder.</p><p><strong>In an age where a <a href="https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/hospital-physician-relationships/millennial-physicians-opting-out-of-the-hippocratic-oath-in-favor-of-alternatives.html">new generation of doctors increasingly rejects the Hippocratic oath</a>, a government take over of medical care – as the <a href="https://mises.org/wire/real-cost-medicare-all-lives-not-dollars">honest advocates of “Medicare for All” propose</a> – could inevitably lead to politicized regulators making life and death decisions for Americans.</strong></p><p>Now does this mean I think it's likely that a President Ocasio-Cortez would instruct a "political death panel" to not provide Alex Jones with life saving treatment? Not necessarily. The issue, however, is that the greater control the state has on medicine, the more decisions are influenced by the concerns of government, rather than the needs of patients. In such a dark timeline, if socialized healthcare forced America to face the sort of medical rationing that Britain’s prized National Health Service <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/health-40485724">has been reduced to</a>, it would be fair to wonder if Gavin McInnes would receive the same sort of treatment as an Ezra Klein.</p><p><strong>At the end of the day the more socialist a country is, the greater the danger in opposing the narrative of the state.</strong></p><p>As Mises warned in <em>Omnipotent Government</em>:</p><blockquote><p><strong>Within a socialist community there is no room left for freedom...There can be neither freedom of conscience nor of speech where the government has the power to remove any opponent to a climate which is detrimental to his health.</strong></p></blockquote><p>Now obviously the US is far away from such a terrorizing future, and there are far more immediate threats than the specter of political death panels. Can we be so confident about China, with its new social credit system? Or even the UK with the previously mentioned stress placed on its health system, and its own growing political polarization? It's fair to wonder. </p><p><strong>No matter where you are in the world, the danger is the same. Grow the scope of government and expand the weapons of the state that can be deployed against its political enemies.</strong></p><p>It’s Big Tech today. Let’s not allow it be healthcare in the future.</p><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~4/DKoD5yLeMZo" height="1" width="1" alt="" />KULIONLINEhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07689534547405416862noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1172689132595421539.post-42897389765278462182018-12-16T07:52:00.000+07:002018-12-16T11:04:18.525+07:00"Pretty Loud Bang": Boeing 737 Jet Damaged In Possible Midair Drone Strike <p>Grupo Aeromexico, an airline holding company, headquartered in Mexico City that owns and operates Aeromexico, is investigating a possible drone strike that severely damaged one of its Boeing 737 jetliners as the aircraft approached its final destination in Tijuana, Mexico, reported <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-13/aeromexico-737-jetliner-damaged-in-possible-midair-drone-strike">Bloomberg</a>.</p><p>Several social media reports and local Mexican news media confirmed by Grupo Aeromexico that Flight 773 from Guadalajara was in final approach (also called the final leg and final approach leg) to the airport when the crew heard a “very strong blow” to the aircraft. The pilots were able to land without further incident, as no passengers were injured.</p><blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p dir="ltr" lang="es" xml:lang="es">Desde Tijuana nos hacen llegar estas imágenes del Radomo de un B737 de Aeromexico en Tijuana.<br /><br />Nuestra fuente indica que se trató de un impacto a un dron en la aproximación final. <a href="https://t.co/YJhKVGKY4W">pic.twitter.com/YJhKVGKY4W</a></p>— FsMex.com (@FsMexcom) <a href="https://twitter.com/FsMexcom/status/1072976479946985472?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 12, 2018</a></blockquote><script async="" src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8" type="text/javascript"></script><blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p dir="ltr" lang="en" xml:lang="en">2018-12-12 Aeromexico B737-800 (XA-ADV) sustained damage to its radome on approach to runway 09 at Tijuana-Intl AP (MMTJ), Mexico. Flight <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/AM770?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#AM770</a> from Guadalajara landed safely. Unconfirmed reports indicate the aircraft may have hit a drone. <a href="https://t.co/L7aG5OlLDp">https://t.co/L7aG5OlLDp</a> <a href="https://t.co/g0Mfpw1po3">pic.twitter.com/g0Mfpw1po3</a></p>— JACDEC (@JacdecNew) <a href="https://twitter.com/JacdecNew/status/1073269913534521345?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 13, 2018</a></blockquote><script async="" src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8" type="text/javascript"></script><p>Local reports suggested that it was a drone that caused the terrifying impact and have provided numerous pictures of the badly damaged nosecone and radome of the aircraft.</p><blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p dir="ltr" lang="es" xml:lang="es">Avión de Aeroméxico choca con dron en <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Tijuana?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Tijuana</a> <a href="https://t.co/5ffb6yCDCy">https://t.co/5ffb6yCDCy</a> <a href="https://t.co/KyB9eyZncw">pic.twitter.com/KyB9eyZncw</a></p>— Milenio.com (@Milenio) <a href="https://twitter.com/Milenio/status/1073282573621714944?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 13, 2018</a></blockquote><script async="" src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8" type="text/javascript"></script><p>“The exact cause is still being investigated,” Aeromexico said in a statement. “The aircraft landed normally and the passengers’ safety was never compromised.”</p><p><a data-image-external-href="" data-image-href="/sites/default/files/inline-images/Screen%20Shot%202018-12-15%20at%208.33.35%20AM.png?itok=7xT9UHHL" data-link-option="0" href="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/Screen%20Shot%202018-12-15%20at%208.33.35%20AM.png?itok=7xT9UHHL"><img data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="e453aa52-ceee-4c20-9e70-a0e6c50dae63" data-responsive-image-style="inline_images" height="375" width="500" srcset="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/Screen%20Shot%202018-12-15%20at%208.33.35%20AM.png?itok=7xT9UHHL 1x" src="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/Screen%20Shot%202018-12-15%20at%208.33.35%20AM.png" alt="" typeof="foaf:Image" /></a></p><p><a data-image-external-href="" data-image-href="/sites/default/files/inline-images/ground%20crew%20fixing%20plane.png?itok=i0kVlxql" data-link-option="0" href="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/ground%20crew%20fixing%20plane.png?itok=i0kVlxql"><img data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="6552c168-259f-452a-846e-48b4dbb55dba" data-responsive-image-style="inline_images" height="243" width="500" srcset="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/ground%20crew%20fixing%20plane.png?itok=i0kVlxql 1x" src="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/ground%20crew%20fixing%20plane.png" alt="" typeof="foaf:Image" /></a></p><p>More photos have emerged on social media showing a large dent punched into the front of the plane.</p><p><a data-image-external-href="" data-image-href="/sites/default/files/inline-images/drone%20strike%20plane%20angles.png?itok=IrtdWUML" data-link-option="0" href="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/drone%20strike%20plane%20angles.png?itok=IrtdWUML"><img data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="03ce6212-2013-44a7-bdb9-603ac592a9a8" data-responsive-image-style="inline_images" height="244" width="500" srcset="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/drone%20strike%20plane%20angles.png?itok=IrtdWUML 1x" src="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/drone%20strike%20plane%20angles.png" alt="" typeof="foaf:Image" /></a></p><p>Incidents involving planes and drones have become more common in the last several years as the number of consumer drones around the world has exploded. </p><p>Take, for example, the US, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) said drone registrations stood at the 670,000 in January 2017. Fast forward to 2018, and the latest figures show more than a million consumer drones have been registered.</p><p>With more consumer drones in the sky, there have been 6,000 drone sightings by pilots, some of them by airline crews, through June, according to FAA data.</p><p>So far, the US National Transportation Safety Board has investigated one confirmed midair collision involving a drone. An Army Sikorsky UH-60 Black Hawk helicopter collided with a consumer drone near Staten Island, New York, in September 2017, causing minor damage. </p><p><strong>It is only a matter of time before a consumer drone strikes another passenger jet, not on the nosecone and radome, but rather a direct engine hit, which would be catastrophic.</strong></p><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~4/05RpkNfyom4" height="1" width="1" alt="" />KULIONLINEhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07689534547405416862noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1172689132595421539.post-40915326585818709932018-12-16T05:52:00.003+07:002018-12-16T11:04:18.428+07:00How Will The Obamacare Ruling Affect Americans Covered Under The ACA?<p>A Texas federal Judge ruled on Friday that the entire Affordable Care Act (ACA), or Obamacare, was rendered unconstitutional after Congress eliminated the individual mandate - a federal requirement to buy insurance or face a penalty.</p><blockquote><p>At issue in the case was the individual mandate, which requires people to have health insurance. <strong>The penalty for not having insurance was dropped to $0 in the most recent tax legislation, potentially undercutting the Supreme Court's decision in 2012 that the Affordable Care Act was constitutional</strong> because of Congress' ability to tax. </p><p><strong>With no penalty, there's no tax</strong>, the plaintiffs, a coalition of Republican-led states, argued in the Texas case. The plaintiffs also argued that the individual mandate is so essential to the entire law, so that if it's unconstitutional, the rest of the law must also be thrown out. U.S. District Court Judge Reed O'Connor agreed on that point, too. -<em><a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/what-judges-ruling-means-for-people-covered-under-obamacare/?ftag=CNM-00-10aac3a">CBS News</a></em></p></blockquote><p>The ruling came just one day before the december 15 deadline to sign up for health coverage in 2019 through the ACA's marketplace. </p><p>How will this the ruling affect people covered under the ACA? It won't, for now - and people can still sign up for coverage through Saturday. "<strong>Court's decision does not affect this season's open enrollment</strong>," <a href="https://www.healthcare.gov/">reads a notice</a> on HealthCare.gov. </p><p>The Trump White House has said that the existing law will stand for now while the ruling works its way through the appeals process up to the Supreme Court - a process which could take years. Some, such as <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/12/14/18141670/obamacare-unconstitutional-texas-judge-strikes-down-reed-o-connor"><em>Vox</em>'s Ezra Klein</a>, have suggested that since Congress removed the individual mandate with the intention of keeping Obamacare intact, the Texas ruling is judicial overreach and the ruling is unlikely to stand.</p><p>"<strong>We expect this ruling will be appealed to the Supreme Court. Pending the appeal process, the law remains in place</strong>," said White House Press Secretary Sarah Sanders in a statement, adding that Trump is now calling on Congress to replace the Affordable Care Act. </p><p>That didn't stop Trump from throwing salt in the wound - tweeting on Saturday: "As I predicted all along, <strong>Obamacare has been struck down as an UNCONSTITUTIONAL disaster!</strong> Now Congress must pass a STRONG law that provides GREAT healthcare and protects pre-existing conditions. Mitch and Nancy, get it done!"</p><blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p dir="ltr" lang="en" xml:lang="en">Wow, but not surprisingly, ObamaCare was just ruled UNCONSTITUTIONAL by a highly respected judge in Texas. Great news for America!</p>— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) <a href="https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1073763695807877120?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 15, 2018</a></blockquote><script async="" src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8" type="text/javascript"></script><p><strong>That said, if the law is ultimately invalidated</strong>, other well-liked sections of the law are likely to be scrapped according to <em><a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/what-judges-ruling-means-for-people-covered-under-obamacare/?ftag=CNM-00-10aac3a">CBS News</a>, </em>such as the provision allowing adult children to remain on their parents insurance coverage until age 26 - whether or not they live in the basement. </p><p><a data-image-external-href="" data-image-href="/sites/default/files/inline-images/on%20couch.jpg?itok=ZOx2g3n6" data-link-option="0" href="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/on%20couch.jpg?itok=ZOx2g3n6"><img data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="a9391447-45db-4cad-b62e-e20cc50ca5db" data-responsive-image-style="inline_images" height="334" width="500" srcset="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/on%20couch.jpg?itok=ZOx2g3n6 1x" src="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/on%20couch.jpg" alt="" typeof="foaf:Image" /></a></p><p>Moreover, invalidating the ACA would eliminate the mandate that insurance companies cannot discriminate against pre-existing conditions, as well as the ban on annual lifetime limits for coverage. </p><blockquote><p>Democrats immediately jumped on the Friday night ruling to warn that health care coverage for millions of Americans was at stake due to the Republican-led lawsuit that sought to void popular parts of Obamacare, including protections for pre-existing conditions and a ban on annual lifetime limits. -<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-15/judge-throws-political-bomb-in-trump-s-lap-by-voiding-obamacare">Bloomberg</a></p></blockquote><p>House Speaker-in-waiting Nancy Pelosi said that the ruling "exposes the monstrous endgame of Republicans’ all-out assault on people with pre-existing conditions and Americans’ access to affordable health care."</p><p>Trump, of course, celebrated - though not everyone agrees... "When Trump says this is ‘great for America,’ he’s forgetting the health care driven whipping Republicans got in the midterms," said Andy Slavitt - the man who oversaw the implementation of the ACA for the Obama administration, who added "Rather than let that heal, <strong>he’s making health care a 2020 prime fight and also putting Republicans in the Senate at great exposure</strong>."</p><blockquote><p>Republicans struggled with the issue in the campaign. They vowed to support protections for Americans with pre-existing conditions, even if they backed the lawsuit or legislation that would undo those provisions. One prominent Republican ally of Trump said health care could be his “Achilles heel” in 2020, when he’s up for re-election. -<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-15/judge-throws-political-bomb-in-trump-s-lap-by-voiding-obamacare">Bloomberg</a></p></blockquote><p>"I’m not sure Republicans even know what they’re fighting for right now when it comes to health care," said former GOP Congressman from Florida who is now an independent. "Opposing Obamacare has become reflexive GOP orthodoxy, but they just spent six months saying they’d protect pre-existing conditions. <strong>Hard to square GOP campaign promises with the court victory by GOP attorneys general</strong>," he added. </p><p>The next step for the matter will be the <strong>Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals</strong> - the most conservative appellate court in the country, according to <em>Bloomberg</em>. If they uphold the decision, it's likely headed to the Supreme Court. On the other hand if the Fifth Circuit reverses the decision, the Supreme Court likely won't hear the case, according to legal experts. </p><blockquote><p>“<strong>I can’t see who in the Fifth Circuit swallows this, and if they don’t,” the Supreme Court won’t take the the case</strong>, predicted Adler, who’s also a member of the conservative Federalist Society.</p><p>Nicholas Bagley, a professor at University of Michigan Law School, said he doubts the case will make it to the Supreme Court. By far the likeliest outcome is that it gets rejected on appeal at the Fifth Circuit, he said in an email, adding, “No serious conservative has yet endorsed this litigation. That includes very hard-line conservatives.” -Bloomberg</p></blockquote><p>Republican Kevin Brady - the House Ways and Means Committee Chairman who assisted in the unsuccessful Republican bill to repeal Obamacare in 2017, said that the ruling was "not surprising," as the law was "embarrassingly designed. </p><p>If Friday's ruling is upheld, Brady says "<strong>ultimately both parties should start over.</strong>" </p><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~4/gFZdam7xAxM" height="1" width="1" alt="" />KULIONLINEhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07689534547405416862noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1172689132595421539.post-64420597438806048872018-12-16T05:52:00.002+07:002018-12-16T11:04:18.835+07:00More Than 150 People Are Moving Out Of Chicago Every Day<p>With its nation-leading murder rate, lake-effect weather and endemic corruption and financial mismanagement, <strong>who really wants to live in Chicago?</strong> Well, the data is in, and as Mayor Rahm Emmanuel prepares to hand power to a new administration next year, his legacy - already marred by the above-mentioned scourges - has accrued another ignominious distinction. According to Census data analyzed by <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-14/chicago-exodus-sees-city-shrink-by-156-daily-demographic-trends?srnd=premium">Bloomberg</a>, <strong>Chicago experienced the highest daily net migration in the US, losing 156 residents a day (strictly due to migration, not murder) a day in 2017.</strong></p><p>After Chicago, Los Angeles came second with 128, followed by New York with 132.</p><p>On the other side of that coin were cities across the US sun belt, like Dallas (No. 1, with 246 net incoming), followed by Phoenix (with 174) and Atlanta (No. 3 with 147).</p><p><a data-image-external-href="" data-image-href="/sites/default/files/inline-images/2018.12.14tripledigits.JPG?itok=2ikoSSfu" data-link-option="0" href="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/2018.12.14tripledigits.JPG?itok=2ikoSSfu"><img data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="00b7a1a4-48a2-443a-97b1-f7fcc3e7ae0c" data-responsive-image-style="inline_images" height="391" width="500" srcset="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/2018.12.14tripledigits.JPG?itok=2ikoSSfu 1x" src="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/2018.12.14tripledigits.JPG" alt="Triple" typeof="foaf:Image" /></a></p><p><a data-image-external-href="" data-image-href="/sites/default/files/inline-images/2018.12.14bbgtwo.JPG?itok=NGSUAKFp" data-link-option="0" href="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/2018.12.14bbgtwo.JPG?itok=NGSUAKFp"><img data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="ace6f476-be28-44ca-89ce-8a910d90a700" data-responsive-image-style="inline_images" height="312" width="500" srcset="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/2018.12.14bbgtwo.JPG?itok=NGSUAKFp 1x" src="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/2018.12.14bbgtwo.JPG" alt="BBG" typeof="foaf:Image" /></a></p><p>In terms of total net migration for the year, the tallies differed only slightly. While the sun belt was the biggest beneficiary of Americans' growing preference for sunnier weather, lower rents and plentiful job opportunities...</p><blockquote><p>Dallas was the greatest beneficiary of this domestic migration, adding nearly 59,000 domestic movers in 2017, followed by Phoenix (51,000) and Tampa (41,000), which serve as anchors for the western and southern regions that got the bulk of the gains.</p></blockquote><p>...some of America's largest cities saw net outflows as rising rents, crumbling (or inadequate) public infrastructure. The city with the biggest outflow was NYC, followed by Los Angeles and - in third place - beautiful Bridgeport, Conn.</p><blockquote><p><strong>On the flip side, more than 208,000 residents left the New York City metropolitan area last year. This was nearly twice as many as the second biggest loser, Los Angeles, which had a decline of nearly 110,000.</strong> Chicago fell by 85,000. Honolulu, San Jose, New York and Bridgeport, CT lost the highest shares of their residents to other parts of the country.</p><p>In Chicago, New York and Los Angeles, the three areas with a triple-digit daily exodus, people are fleeing at a greater rate than just a few years earlier. Soaring home prices and high local taxes are pushing local residents out and scaring off potential movers from other parts of the country.</p></blockquote><p>But maybe if Emmanuel's successor can successfully implement the outgoing mayor's <a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-09-12/chicago-task-force-looks-implementing-universal-basic-income">plans for a city wide UBI</a> (which we imagine would go a long way toward offsetting its hated 'amusement tax' and other levies needed to pay off the city's brutal debt burden), <strong>maybe he can bribe residents into staying.</strong></p><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~4/rqo1u33legw" height="1" width="1" alt="" />KULIONLINEhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07689534547405416862noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1172689132595421539.post-56851810779100663692018-12-16T05:52:00.001+07:002018-12-16T11:04:18.787+07:00JPMorgan: There Is A Growing Threat Of "Disorderly Transfer Of Risk" In Credit<p>A curious divergence has emerged within the analyst ranks at JPMorgan, where on one hand there are the bulls such as cross-asset and quant heads, John Normand and Marko Kolanovic, and equity strategists like Mislav Matejka, all of whom are urging clients to remain bullish and carry on buying stocks while ignoring the recent turbulence in the market; on the other hand there are the lone quasi-bears like Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou who writes one of the bank's most popular weekly reports, Flows and Liquidity, and who has a habit of going against JPM's optimistic so-called "house view."</p><p>In an ironic twist, Panigirtzoglou's less than "rose-colored" takes on the market come at a time <a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-12-07/ignore-fake-news-why-kolanovic-sees-sp-rising-3100-2019">when Marko Kolanovic recently lashed out at</a> anything that is less that ragingly bullish as "fake news", and not just fake but having a greater impact on the market than JPMorgan's own official research, to wit:</p><blockquote><p><strong>There are specialized websites that mass produce a mix of real and fake news. Often these outlets will present somewhat credible but distorted coverage of sell-side financial research, mixed with geopolitical news, while tolerating hate speech in their website commentary section</strong>. If we add to this an increased number of algorithms that trade based on posts and headlines, <strong>the impact on price action and investor psychology can be significant.</strong></p></blockquote><p>Amusingly, and perhaps to front-run attacks on his own research, just hours after Kolanovic published the above "hot take" (which came as he was again calling for JPM clients to "buy the dip", and ahead of the market's latest rout), Panigirtzoglou wrote the following disclaimer in his latest weekly report:</p><blockquote><p>As a note to our readers, the above analysis does not represent JPM’s official views/forecasts about US share buybacks. <strong>These JPM official forecasts are <u>more positive</u> and are outlined in the reports by our US equity strategists</strong> (Dubravko Lakos-Bujas and team). Instead, the objective of our analysis is to highlight risks around the house view.</p></blockquote><p>In other words, JPM's bearish takes are not "fake news" - they are just meant to provide cover when the house's "more positive" forecasts for popular consumption - end up being wildly wrong (that, and to tell the more "perceptive" clients what JPM really thinks).</p><p>Not surprisingly, we find Panigirtzoglou's "less positive" if more accurate and thought-out research reports far more informative than the "more positive" JPMorgan "official view", which in turn brings us to his latest weekly note which this time takes on the topic of rising downgrade risk within the high grade sector, a topic near and dear to us as just yesterday we pointed out that in the fourth quarter alone, some $176 billion in A-rated debt was downgraded into BBB territory according to Goldman calculations, <em>"the highest amount since 4Q2015, which was a period characterized by a heavy wave of commodity-related "fallen angels."</em></p><p><a data-image-external-href="" data-image-href="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/BBB%20downgrades%20dec%2014%202018.jpg" data-link-option="0" href="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/BBB%20downgrades%20dec%2014%202018.jpg"><img data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="d470c249-cec6-44a7-9aa7-89b037527632" data-responsive-image-style="inline_images" height="343" srcset="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/BBB%20downgrades%20dec%2014%202018.jpg?itok=u_ytHMla 1x" typeof="foaf:Image" width="500" src="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/BBB%20downgrades%20dec%2014%202018.jpg" alt="" /></a></p><p>The reason why Panigirtzoglou is also focused on the sensitive topic of fallen angel downgrades, is because as he explains with the credit cycle turning (and entering a bear market according to Morgan Stanley) and High Grade credit spreads making new highs in both the US and Europe (where spreads are now at the same level they were when Draghi launched QE back in 2016)...</p><p><a data-image-external-href="" data-image-href="/sites/default/files/inline-images/QE%20spreads.jpg?itok=KvQfsfBW" data-link-option="0" href="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/QE%20spreads.jpg?itok=KvQfsfBW"><img data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="b1bebac9-9bf4-48ff-bae0-efca531103d3" data-responsive-image-style="inline_images" height="361" width="500" srcset="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/QE%20spreads.jpg?itok=KvQfsfBW 1x" src="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/QE%20spreads.jpg" alt="" typeof="foaf:Image" /></a></p><p>... "one of the issues credit investors are facing is that of rating downgrades and fallen angels, i.e. corporate bonds downgraded<br />from investment-grade status." This, as the JPM strategist explains, is not because rating downgrades or fallen angels have forecasting ability in terms of gauging the direction of the credit cycle - on the contrary they tend to rather lag the credit cycle - <strong>but they are important in gauging the negative impact on credit returns:</strong> This, as we have explained previously, is because rating downgrades or fallen angels "drive a wedge between spread returns and total returns as the managers who are only allowed to hold investment grade bonds are forced to offload their downgraded bonds."</p><p>So how big are the rating downgrade or fallen angel effects? The good news, is that at the moment, the answer is "pretty small." In fact, these rating downgrade or fallen angel effects have barely started because, as the chart below shows, the number of fallen angels in JPMorgan’s global high yield dollar denominated index still stands at very low levels typically seen at the beginning of a credit cycle (this is a far lower number than the <a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-12-14/credit-verge-crisis-176-billion-rated-bonds-downgraded-bbb-q4">abovementioned surge in downgrades from A to BBB,</a> or credits which can be dubbed pre-fallen angels).</p><p><a data-image-external-href="" data-image-href="/sites/default/files/inline-images/jpm%20fallen%20angels.jpg?itok=LiHqOWeZ" data-link-option="0" href="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/jpm%20fallen%20angels.jpg?itok=LiHqOWeZ"><img data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="c8f0629b-494b-4869-bf27-40bbacce5bdc" data-responsive-image-style="inline_images" height="381" width="500" srcset="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/jpm%20fallen%20angels.jpg?itok=LiHqOWeZ 1x" src="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/jpm%20fallen%20angels.jpg" alt="" typeof="foaf:Image" /></a></p><p>A quick look at rating downgrades reveals a similar picture because like with fallen angels, corporate downgrade reviews have yet to rise materially.</p><p>As a result, while many have expressed concern <a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-11-22/64-trillion-question-how-many-bbb-bonds-are-about-be-downgraded">about the <em><strong>threat</strong></em> from future downgrades</a>, the realized negative impact that downgrades and fallen angels typically exert on credit returns has yet to hurt credit investors in a big way.</p><p><em>So are current concerns by traders and market participants about rating downgrades/fallen angels justified?</em></p><p>This is where the abovementioned internal dichotomy in JPM's views would emerge, because while we would expect Kolanovic to respond firmly in the <em>negative,</em> Panigirtzoglou believes the answer is <em><strong>yes</strong></em> if one simply looks at credit fundamentals such as debt-to-income ratios. In fact, as the JPM strategist writes, "a visual inspection of debt-to-income ratios across the universe of companies behind corporate bond indices reveals a highly problematic picture."</p><p>The four charts below show the <em>net debt-to-EBITDA</em> ratio for companies behind JPMorgan’s HG and HY indices in both the US and<br />Europe. Panigirtzoglou warns that the leverage metric <strong>has been rising steeply over the past decade to levels that are much higher than those seen at the peaks of the previous two cycles in 2007/2008 and 2001/2002.</strong></p><p><a data-image-external-href="" data-image-href="/sites/default/files/inline-images/pani%20leverage.jpg?itok=LcfOMVs4" data-link-option="0" href="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/pani%20leverage.jpg?itok=LcfOMVs4"><img data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="0658ddc2-95f6-4a88-82b4-abdda8ee8757" data-responsive-image-style="inline_images" height="409" width="500" srcset="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/pani%20leverage.jpg?itok=LcfOMVs4 1x" src="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/pani%20leverage.jpg" alt="" typeof="foaf:Image" /></a></p><p>In other words <em><strong>"companies are currently much more vulnerable to a decline in incomes and/or rise in interest rates that in the previous two cycles."</strong></em></p><p>This is especially true in the US where the Fed hikes coupled with its balance sheet shrinkage have pushed corporate bond yields close to the 5% mark, creating vulnerability for credit in a risk scenario where earnings contract next year. In Europe, a similar demand/supply balance problem looms for corporate bonds next year when the ECB ends its corporate bond program on Jan 1.</p><p>Narrowing the observations down to just BBB companies, which currently account for more than half of the HG corporate bond universe, look equally vulnerable.</p><p><a data-image-external-href="" data-image-href="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/IG%20BBB%20morgan%20stanley.jpg" data-link-option="0" href="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/IG%20BBB%20morgan%20stanley.jpg"><img data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="ab8f5ea1-d1cd-4afb-ac2d-2c6cc640209f" data-responsive-image-style="inline_images" height="301" srcset="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/IG%20BBB%20morgan%20stanley.jpg?itok=8YKKp_2C 1x" typeof="foaf:Image" width="500" src="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/IG%20BBB%20morgan%20stanley.jpg" alt="" /></a></p><p>As laid out in the two charts below, the median net debt-to-EBITDA ratio for companies in JPMorgan’s BBB indices in both the US and Europe has also risen for BBB corporates to above the peaks of the previous two cycles especially in Europe. More importantly if one looks at the portion of BBB companies with net-debt-to-EBITDA ratio higher than the BB average of 2.3 in the US and 2.6 in Europe since 2001, JPM finds that this portion stands at 55% currently in both the US and Europe, <strong>or at the highest level in at least two decades.</strong></p><p><a data-image-external-href="" data-image-href="/sites/default/files/inline-images/net%20debt%20us%20vs%20europe.jpg?itok=4815jbyy" data-link-option="0" href="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/net%20debt%20us%20vs%20europe.jpg?itok=4815jbyy"><img data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="5baa7f53-8c65-4e9f-a891-d0dfb18b31b1" data-responsive-image-style="inline_images" height="208" width="500" srcset="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/net%20debt%20us%20vs%20europe.jpg?itok=4815jbyy 1x" src="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/net%20debt%20us%20vs%20europe.jpg" alt="" typeof="foaf:Image" /></a></p><p>At face value, from a net-debt-to-EBITDA point of view - and much more concerning from a future downgrade standpoint - <strong>more than half of BBB companies in the US and Europe look more like high yield than high grade.</strong></p><p><a data-image-external-href="" data-image-href="/sites/default/files/inline-images/JPM%20BBB%20net%20debt%20to%20ebitda%20over%20BB.jpg?itok=5qCOogZo" data-link-option="0" href="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/JPM%20BBB%20net%20debt%20to%20ebitda%20over%20BB.jpg?itok=5qCOogZo"><img data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="eef99965-966b-4204-a206-ec7d6b0335cc" data-responsive-image-style="inline_images" height="213" width="500" srcset="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/JPM%20BBB%20net%20debt%20to%20ebitda%20over%20BB.jpg?itok=5qCOogZo 1x" src="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/JPM%20BBB%20net%20debt%20to%20ebitda%20over%20BB.jpg" alt="" typeof="foaf:Image" /></a></p><p>And this is why to Panigirtzoglou this suggests that "<strong>the downgrade and fallen angel risks look pretty elevated at the moment for both US and European high grade corporates, raising the prospect of disorderly transfer of risk between HG and HY markets over the coming year.</strong>"</p><p>This is a problem because as Bank of America first <a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-06-28/bank-america-spots-eu800-billion-cliff-fills-us-fear">pointed out back in June</a>, in Europe alone JPM estimates that roughly €100 – 120bn of bonds could be downgraded from investment grade to high yield during the next recession. <strong>This would cause the Euro high yield market to balloon in size by at least a third from the current notional of just over €300bn.</strong></p><p><a data-image-external-href="" data-image-href="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/800bn%20delta_0.jpg" data-link-option="0" href="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/800bn%20delta_0.jpg"><img data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="e8cc78db-0119-4bab-9d65-5dd9435a2231" data-responsive-image-style="inline_images" height="265" srcset="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/800bn%20delta_0.jpg?itok=3f_phDdP 1x" typeof="foaf:Image" width="500" src="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/800bn%20delta_0.jpg" alt="" /></a></p><p>In October, Morgan Stanley applied a similar calculation to corporate bonds in the US, and found that over $1 trillion in IG bonds could be downgraded to High Yield <a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-10-07/next-bond-crisis-over-1-trillion-bonds-risk-cut-junk-once-cycle-turns">once the cycle turns</a>.</p><p><a data-image-external-href="" data-image-href="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/HY%20downgrade%20cycle.jpg" data-link-option="0" href="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/HY%20downgrade%20cycle.jpg"><img data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="53f0ba2d-5905-42ce-aaf0-ced3085d8470" data-responsive-image-style="inline_images" height="271" srcset="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/HY%20downgrade%20cycle.jpg?itok=uOas5QzH 1x" typeof="foaf:Image" width="500" src="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/HY%20downgrade%20cycle.jpg" alt="" /></a></p><p>Summarizing the above, Panigirtzoglou concludes the because of these capacity problems, a "<strong>disorderly transfer of risk</strong>" between HG and HY markets is an increasingly greater threat to the credit market (which already has its hands full with the sudden repricing and turmoil sweeping across the leveraged loan market). Or, as Kolanovic would say "<em><a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-12-07/ignore-fake-news-why-kolanovic-sees-sp-rising-3100-2019">fake news</a>."</em></p><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~4/mwY5FP3DG_s" height="1" width="1" alt="" />KULIONLINEhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07689534547405416862noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1172689132595421539.post-55913091610700528922018-12-16T05:52:00.000+07:002018-12-16T11:04:18.717+07:00US Commits To "Indefinite" Occupation Of Syria; Controls Region The Size Of CroatiaKULIONLINEhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07689534547405416862noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1172689132595421539.post-72438348829536769752018-12-16T03:52:00.004+07:002018-12-16T11:04:19.102+07:00Russia's New Rules Of Engagement In SyriaKULIONLINEhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07689534547405416862noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1172689132595421539.post-65684055747830829482018-12-16T03:52:00.003+07:002018-12-16T11:04:18.883+07:00Mueller Scrubbed Messages From Peter Strzok's iPhone; OIG Recovers 19,000 New "FBI Lovebird" Texts<p>The Justice Department's internal watchdog revealed on Thursday that special counsel Robert Mueller's office scrubbed all of the data from FBI agent Peter Strzok's iPhone, while his FBI mistress Lisa Page's phone had been scrubbed by a different department, according to a <a href="https://oig.justice.gov/reports/2018/i-2018-003523.pdf">comprehensive report</a> by the Office of the Inspector General (OIG) released on Thursday. </p><p><a data-image-external-href="" data-image-href="/sites/default/files/inline-images/strzok%20mueller.jpg?itok=bE_j79E4" data-link-option="0" href="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/strzok%20mueller.jpg?itok=bE_j79E4"><img data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="9fa02ffb-da83-43ad-b053-f17933eee608" data-responsive-image-style="inline_images" height="255" width="500" srcset="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/strzok%20mueller.jpg?itok=bE_j79E4 1x" src="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/strzok%20mueller.jpg" alt="" typeof="foaf:Image" /></a></p><p>After Strzok was kicked off the special counsel investigation following the discovery of anti-Trump text messages between he and Page, his Mueller's Records Officer scrubbed Strzok's iPhone after determining "it contained no substantive text messages," reports the <a href="https://www.conservativereview.com/news/obstruction-mueller-probe-wiped-strzok-phone-before-giving-it-to-investigators/"><em>Conservative Review</em></a>'s Jordan Schachtel. </p><blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p dir="ltr" lang="en" xml:lang="en">So Mueller's team wiped ALL of the data off of Peter Strzok's iPhone after determining "it contained no substantive text messages." Given what we know about Strzok, this smells like quite the coverup. Time for Congress to step in?<a href="https://t.co/mOgpBbDVO4">https://t.co/mOgpBbDVO4</a> <a href="https://t.co/9w2mEPK64C">pic.twitter.com/9w2mEPK64C</a></p>— Jordan Schachtel (@JordanSchachtel) <a href="https://twitter.com/JordanSchachtel/status/1073250333948895233?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 13, 2018</a></blockquote><p>Mueller's team was unable to locate Page's iPhone, however the DOJ's Justice Management Division (JMD) similarly scrubbed her phone - resetting it to factory settings. </p><blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-conversation="none" data-lang="en"><p dir="ltr" lang="en" xml:lang="en">I'm sure you're all super shocked to find out that Lisa Page's phone was also scrubbed <a href="https://t.co/NWV9GQbBTc">pic.twitter.com/NWV9GQbBTc</a></p>— Jordan Schachtel (@JordanSchachtel) <a href="https://twitter.com/JordanSchachtel/status/1073275586947244032?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 13, 2018</a></blockquote><blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p dir="ltr" lang="en" xml:lang="en">* Strzok texts he'll "stop Trump"<br />* Strzok texts that NYT is upset about WaPo scoop.<br />* Strzok texts Page re "insurance policy"<br />* Mueller then smashes their phones with a virtual hammer.<br /><br />Go on how you're concerned about corruption, obstruction of justice, and collusion. <a href="https://t.co/6267rsEahS">https://t.co/6267rsEahS</a></p>— Razor (@hale_razor) <a href="https://twitter.com/hale_razor/status/1073252219657416705?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 13, 2018</a></blockquote><p>Meanwhile, <strong>the OIG recovered approximately newly found 19,000 Strzok-Page texts from their Galaxy S5 phones</strong>. The messages span a "gap" in text messages between December 15, 2016 and May 17, 2017. </p><blockquote><p>OIG digital forensic examiners used forensic tools to recover thousands of text messages from these devices, including many outside the period of collection tool failure (December 15, 20 I 6 to May 17, 2017) and many that Strzok and Page had with persons other than each other. Approximately 9,311 text messages that were sent or received during the period of collection tool failure were recovered from Strzok's S5 phone, of which approximately <strong>8,358 were sent to or received from Page</strong>. <strong>Approximately 10,760 text messages that were sent or received during the period of collection tool failure were recovered from Page's S5 phone, of which approximately 9,717 were sent to or received from Strzok</strong>. Thus, many of the text messages recovered from Strzok's S5 were also recovered from Page's S5. However, <strong>some of the Strzok-Page text messages were only recovered from Strzok's phone while others were only recovered from Page's phone</strong>. -OIG Report </p></blockquote><blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p dir="ltr" lang="en" xml:lang="en">Wow, 19,000 Texts between Lisa Page and her lover, Peter S of the FBI, in charge of the Russia Hoax, were just reported as being wiped clean and gone. Such a big story that will never be covered by the Fake News. Witch Hunt!</p>— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) <a href="https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1073982314588323845?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 15, 2018</a></blockquote><p>Thousands of text messages between Strzok and Page were recovered by the OIG, many indicating that both agents <strong>in charge of investigating Donald Trump </strong>absolutely hate him. </p><p>In August 2016, Strzok and Page discussed an "insurance policy" in the event that Trump won the election which many believe to be in reference to operation Crossfire Hurricane - the DOJ's counterintelligence investigation into Trump and his campaign. </p><p>"<strong>I want to believe the path you threw out for consideration in Andy's office - that there's no way he </strong>[Trump] <strong>gets elected - but I'm afraid we can't take that risk." </strong>wrote Strzok, adding "<strong>It's like a life insurance policy in the unlikely event you die before you're 40</strong>." </p><p>In the home stretch of the 2016 US election, Strzok is fuming at Trump - texting Page: " I am riled up. Trump is a f*cking idiot, is unable to provide a coherent answer." He then texts "I CAN'T PULL AWAY, WHAT THE F*CK HAPPENED TO OUR COUNTRY (redacted)??!?!," to which Page replies "I don't know. But we'll get it back."</p><blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p dir="ltr" lang="en" xml:lang="en">Strzok/Page texts 10/20/16<br /><br />PS - I am riled up. Trump is a f*cking idiot, is unable to provide a coherent answer.<br /><br />PS - I CAN'T PULL AWAY, WHAT THE F*CK HAPPENED TO OUR COUNTRY (redacted)??!?!<br /><br />LP - I don't know. But we'll get it back. ...</p>— Shannon Bream (@ShannonBream) <a href="https://twitter.com/ShannonBream/status/940797491338993664?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 13, 2017</a></blockquote><blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p dir="ltr" lang="en" xml:lang="en">Strzok/Page texts<br /><br />LP – And maybe you’re meant to stay where you are because you’re meant to protect the country from that menace. (links to NYT article)<br /><br />PS – ... I can protect our country at many levels, not sure if that helps</p>— Shannon Bream (@ShannonBream) <a href="https://twitter.com/ShannonBream/status/940779309802942464?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 13, 2017</a></blockquote><p>More than two years later, the anti-Trump FBI agents may not have gotten their country back - but the special counsel's office continues to cast a shadow of doubt Trump's legitimacy.</p><script async="" src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8" type="text/javascript"></script><script async="" src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8" type="text/javascript"></script><script async="" src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8" type="text/javascript"></script><script async="" src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8" type="text/javascript"></script><script async="" src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8" type="text/javascript"></script><script async="" src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8" type="text/javascript"></script><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~4/8I9qswezVqQ" height="1" width="1" alt="" />KULIONLINEhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07689534547405416862noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1172689132595421539.post-53867004042522928002018-12-16T03:52:00.002+07:002018-12-16T11:04:18.619+07:00"What We Are Left With Is Pure Ugly" - Will The Communists Panic Next Week?<p><a href="https://www.alhambrapartners.com/2018/12/14/the-word-is-decline/"><em>Authored by Jeffrey Snider via Alhambra Investment Partners,</em></a></p><h2><u>The Relevant Word Is 'Decline'</u></h2><p>The English language headline for China’s National Bureau of Statistics’ press release on November 2018’s Big 3 was, <em>National Economy Maintained Stable and Sound Momentum of Development in November</em>. For those who, as <a href="https://www.alhambrapartners.com/2018/12/13/sometimes-bad-news-is-just-right/">noted yesterday</a>, are wishing China’s economy bad news so as to lead to the supposed good news of a coordinated “stimulus” response this was itself a bad news/good news situation.</p><p><strong>If the Communist State Council is to be flustered into action, the title of the release might suggest maybe not.</strong> Then again, there isn’t a month that goes by where the NBS writers don’t write pretty much the same thing. In a Communist country, any wording less than “sound momentum” is surely frowned upon especially when there is no momentum.</p><p><strong>Underneath, the figures were all bad.</strong> Were they bad enough? I don’t believe anything short of full-fledged collapse will be, but this is attempting to game and analyze a political factor whose proportions are never going to be fully known.</p><p><strong>What we are left with is pure ugly.</strong> The last time Industrial Production grew at a 5.4% annual rate, as it did last month, it was February 2016 and the worst of times for modern, industrial China. It was also the same month the last “stimulus” was uncorked.</p><p>It doesn’t get any lower than the 2015-16 downturn so for Chinese industry to already be at that depth with “this one” just getting started, it all tells us that perhaps there is a lot of downside left to come and that officials are keenly aware of the possibility.</p><p><a data-image-external-href="" data-image-href="/sites/default/files/inline-images/ABOOK-Dec-2018-IPRSFAI-IP-PMI.png?itok=P2PUsN8n" data-link-option="0" href="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/ABOOK-Dec-2018-IPRSFAI-IP-PMI.png?itok=P2PUsN8n"><img data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="4d0426b0-33da-4ff6-ac8a-c6d0f87c6dda" data-responsive-image-style="inline_images" height="328" width="500" srcset="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/ABOOK-Dec-2018-IPRSFAI-IP-PMI.png?itok=P2PUsN8n 1x" src="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/ABOOK-Dec-2018-IPRSFAI-IP-PMI.png" alt="" typeof="foaf:Image" /></a></p><p>If this was somehow unexpected and unapproved, so to speak, they wouldn’t have waited for 5.4% to reappear. That goes double for consumer spending, or retail sales in this case. Chinese retail activity grew by just 8.1% in November. You have to go back fifteen years to find something less.</p><p><a data-image-external-href="" data-image-href="/sites/default/files/inline-images/ABOOK-Dec-2018-IPRSFAI-RS.png?itok=RPXELVtu" data-link-option="0" href="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/ABOOK-Dec-2018-IPRSFAI-RS.png?itok=RPXELVtu"><img data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="d79dd7dc-09df-4f7c-ab97-b932b2644222" data-responsive-image-style="inline_images" height="297" width="500" srcset="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/ABOOK-Dec-2018-IPRSFAI-RS.png?itok=RPXELVtu 1x" src="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/ABOOK-Dec-2018-IPRSFAI-RS.png" alt="" typeof="foaf:Image" /></a></p><p>What should really stand out especially for the stimulus whisperers is <strong><em>when</em> </strong>China’s latest economic inflection transpired. It wasn’t Trump and trade, it was in the middle of last year for both IP as well as RS.</p><p>Why mid-2017? That was when authorities began to realize the full extent of their predicament. They had done the “stimulus” stuff in a rush to begin 2016 and it didn’t get anywhere. There are often heavy costs to doing these kinds of things, so to pay out a lot and receive very little in return from it is a big counterpoint to thinking about doing it again.</p><p><a data-image-external-href="" data-image-href="/sites/default/files/inline-images/ABOOK-Dec-2018-IPRSFAI-IP-RS.png?itok=-vZgSKxm" data-link-option="0" href="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/ABOOK-Dec-2018-IPRSFAI-IP-RS.png?itok=-vZgSKxm"><img data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="4484f232-b4ea-4701-9d68-68fa2b6ca99a" data-responsive-image-style="inline_images" height="313" width="500" srcset="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/ABOOK-Dec-2018-IPRSFAI-IP-RS.png?itok=-vZgSKxm 1x" src="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/ABOOK-Dec-2018-IPRSFAI-IP-RS.png" alt="" typeof="foaf:Image" /></a></p><p><strong>China simply has, as we’ve been writing and speaking about for half a decade (and more, less specifically about China), no monetary room with which to get any kind of internal growth started. That point was driven home last year. The global economy despite all officials protestations everywhere has never once picked up toward recovery.</strong></p><p>Therefore, the Chinese government is left between the rock (external malaise) and the hard place (no internal monetary space). Only a few months after June 2017, Communist officials convened at the 19th Party Congress and “elected” <a href="https://www.alhambrapartners.com/2017/10/24/an-unexpected-and-rotten-branch-of-the-maestros-legacy/">to move authoritarian</a>. This, I don’t believe, is mere coincidence.</p><p>The only mild positive so far in 2018 is how Fixed Asset Investment (FAI) has stabilized albeit at extremely low levels. Private FAI, in particular, is growing at around a 9% rate (8.8% in November) which is better than late last year.</p><p><a data-image-external-href="" data-image-href="/sites/default/files/inline-images/ABOOK-Dec-2018-IPRSFAI-FAI-Monthly.png?itok=rJ4oGhL6" data-link-option="0" href="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/ABOOK-Dec-2018-IPRSFAI-FAI-Monthly.png?itok=rJ4oGhL6"><img data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="d893f7a4-61dc-4a5c-b9f6-2db0c4b1df99" data-responsive-image-style="inline_images" height="302" width="500" srcset="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/ABOOK-Dec-2018-IPRSFAI-FAI-Monthly.png?itok=rJ4oGhL6 1x" src="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/ABOOK-Dec-2018-IPRSFAI-FAI-Monthly.png" alt="" typeof="foaf:Image" /></a></p><p><a data-image-external-href="" data-image-href="/sites/default/files/inline-images/ABOOK-Dec-2018-IPRSFAI-FAI-Accum.png?itok=eFcjszUL" data-link-option="0" href="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/ABOOK-Dec-2018-IPRSFAI-FAI-Accum.png?itok=eFcjszUL"><img data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="831194b5-5ca8-4de4-aaf9-f235415da6aa" data-responsive-image-style="inline_images" height="282" width="500" srcset="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/ABOOK-Dec-2018-IPRSFAI-FAI-Accum.png?itok=eFcjszUL 1x" src="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/ABOOK-Dec-2018-IPRSFAI-FAI-Accum.png" alt="" typeof="foaf:Image" /></a></p><p><strong>The flipside of that is how Private FAI seems to have hit a ceiling around 9%, nowhere near the 25% rate that for a few years kept China out of trouble.</strong> Even with officials at lower levels (almost certainly on orders from the central government) in the provinces no longer clamping down on the waste of State-owned FAI, it hasn’t stabilized China’s economy because it can’t.</p><p>On an accumulated basis, Public FAI rose 2.3% in November (meaning YTD) while on a monthly basis it was less than 7% (annual rate) for the second straight month. Like Private FAI, better than before but not really meaningfully so. It seems more like messaging than meaning.</p><p>To me, this adds up to the same thing – an attempt at managing the decline rather than intentions to turn it around as expectations for globally synchronized growth would have required. I wrote <a href="https://www.alhambrapartners.com/2015/08/20/history-repeats-china-as-japan/">more than three years ago</a>, a little over a week after the big shock of CNY in August 2015:</p><blockquote><p>I think they made a conscious effort to try to avoid Japan’s disaster by actively engaging to manage a bubble decline regardless of how much growth had to be “sacrificed” to do so.</p><p>That the Chinese would attempt such a “hail mary” to me cemented the Japanese analogy – they had to try because not doing so, the Japanese path, was far, far worse than the dangers of managed decline getting out of hand. A small probability of success was far better than what surely awaited doing nothing.</p></blockquote><p>This obviously matters given the three years in between for how important China is to global growth, but equally <strong><em>for what it says about the world’s economic situation in 2015 and 2018</em></strong>. What I wrote then still fits this many years later:</p><blockquote><p>In Japan’s case, the believed restoration of a more favorable external balance did not arrive before the monetary expiration. I think that is where the PBOC was in 2013, namely that it took the 2012 global slowdown as the final say in the matter of “the other side”; there was only to be an ugly economic fate.</p></blockquote><p>The Chinese <a href="https://www.alhambrapartners.com/2018/12/10/china-going-back-to-2011/">began to realize</a> what Ben Bernanke and Janet Yellen refused to accept; after 2011 there was not going to be a global recovery because there <strong><em>could</em> </strong>not be one. The 2011 eurodollar crisis, number two, had been the final say on the matter. When CNY started to fall, meaning the “rising dollar”, in 2014, that was it; the <em>final</em> final nail in the coffin.</p><p><a data-image-external-href="" data-image-href="/sites/default/files/inline-images/ABOOK-Nov-2018-TIC-Blue-Foreign-Banks.png?itok=S9wTzX6o" data-link-option="0" href="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/ABOOK-Nov-2018-TIC-Blue-Foreign-Banks.png?itok=S9wTzX6o"><img data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="6de1faa5-ec79-467f-9e48-e3943494072a" data-responsive-image-style="inline_images" height="313" width="500" srcset="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/ABOOK-Nov-2018-TIC-Blue-Foreign-Banks.png?itok=S9wTzX6o 1x" src="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/ABOOK-Nov-2018-TIC-Blue-Foreign-Banks.png" alt="" typeof="foaf:Image" /></a></p><p><a data-image-external-href="" data-image-href="/sites/default/files/inline-images/ABOOK-Nov-2018-PBOC-Bank-Reserves_0.png?itok=45fOOAPA" data-link-option="0" href="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/ABOOK-Nov-2018-PBOC-Bank-Reserves_0.png?itok=45fOOAPA"><img data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="b6e7dd6a-84a2-4603-aa5a-5a1dd4fc2b54" data-responsive-image-style="inline_images" height="355" width="500" srcset="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/ABOOK-Nov-2018-PBOC-Bank-Reserves_0.png?itok=45fOOAPA 1x" src="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/ABOOK-Nov-2018-PBOC-Bank-Reserves_0.png" alt="" typeof="foaf:Image" /></a></p><p><strong>China’s economy could get by in 2017 with a few magic tricks (HK) covered by Reflation #3 globally. But in the renewed eurodollar pressures of this #4, the monetary noose could only tighten that much more internal as well as external.</strong></p><p>CNY DOWN = BAD.</p><p><strong>Maybe the Communists do panic next week surprised not at their own misfortune but by the levels of complacency and denial across the rest of the planet.</strong> Somehow, I doubt it. This is nothing more than the same worldwide “L”, for managed decline is still decline. It surely was that in China in November.</p><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~4/CAcSIrqpjCc" height="1" width="1" alt="" />KULIONLINEhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07689534547405416862noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1172689132595421539.post-54824656660825563992018-12-16T03:52:00.001+07:002018-12-16T11:04:18.643+07:00"I Know How To Cut Well" - Erdogan Reveals More Audio Of Khashoggi KillingKULIONLINEhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07689534547405416862noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1172689132595421539.post-33164138173873727602018-12-16T03:52:00.000+07:002018-12-16T11:04:18.333+07:00The US Boogeyman Is Coming For You...No Matter Where In The World You Are<p><a href="https://www.sovereignman.com/trends/the-boogeyman-is-coming-for-you-no-matter-where-in-the-world-you-are-24365/?utm_medium=email&utm_source=sm_notes&utm_campaign=notes&utm_content=20181128_socsec"><em>Authored by Simon Black via SovereignMan.com,</em></a></p><p><em>The anti-terrorism unit suited up.</em></p><p><em>This was an international affair… a deal between the USA and New Zealand, <a href="https://www.sovereignman.com/trends/these-international-borders-have-become-no-rights-zones-24221/">two members of the Five Eyes intelligence alliance</a>.</em></p><p><em>Helicopters, tactical suits, high caliber firearms—the whole shebang. They busted in the doors and successfully raided the multi-million-dollar compound.</em></p><p><em><strong>What was this… capturing the next in line after Bin Laden? Busting an international human trafficking ring?</strong></em></p><p><a data-image-external-href="" data-image-href="/sites/default/files/inline-images/download_0.jpeg?itok=OQG3TOX7" data-link-option="0" href="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/download_0.jpeg?itok=OQG3TOX7"><img data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="83f38266-4082-4a85-95f6-45cf0d94eb78" data-responsive-image-style="inline_images" height="261" width="500" srcset="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/download_0.jpeg?itok=OQG3TOX7 1x" src="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/download_0.jpeg" alt="" typeof="foaf:Image" /></a></p><p><strong>Actually, elite New Zealand law enforcement was acting at the request of the United States to arrest a guy named Kim Dotcom.</strong></p><p>Kim Dotcom is a large, jovial man of German-Swedish origins. He founded Megaupload, an online platform that allowed us to basically watch movies online for free.</p><p>Unfortunately for Kim, a lot of that content included <em>American</em> movies, with <em>American</em> copyrights.</p><p><strong>US artists didn’t get their money, which meant the US government didn’t get its tax dollars.</strong></p><p>But Kim Dotcom was a German citizen hanging out in New Zealand. So tough luck for the USA, right?</p><p>Wrong. US jurisdiction extends globally… and the government is getting its pound of flesh.</p><p><u><strong>Violate US copyright laws, and get your door kicked in by a SWAT team, even half a world away.</strong></u></p><p>Then there was the Australian, living in London who shared leaked, classified and sensitive documents with the public.</p><p><strong>I’m talking about the founder of WikiLeaks, Julian Assange.</strong></p><p><strong>He walked into the Ecuadorian embassy in London six years ago, asking for asylum.</strong></p><p>There was a Swedish warrant out for his arrest, alleging rape charges. He faced extradition to Sweden, and feared he would then be turned over to US authorities… who wanted Assange taken down for exposing the extent of the spying the US government was carrying out on its own citizens.</p><p>For years it was suspected that there was a sealed US indictment against Assange. Last month, the proof emerged when the US accidentally revealed the filing, but not the specific charges.</p><p>So, we’ve got a Aussie journalist who might get arrested in the UK (which has an extradition agreement with the US) for a crime allegedly committed in Sweden... all because the US government has a hard on for this guy.</p><p><strong>But this journalist made the mistake of providing the world with the valuable insight that the authoritarian US government was surveilling its own citizens.</strong></p><p>And, again, the US wants its pound of flesh.</p><p><u><strong>Just recently, the US has once again flexed its global might to throw someone in jail.</strong></u></p><p>As you’re likely aware, Trump is in the middle of some tense trade war negotiations with China.</p><p>Interesting timing that the Chief Financial Officer of the Chinese tech company Huawei, Meng Wanzhou, was just arrested at the request of US authorities. The company allegedly violated US sanctions against Iran by selling technology to the country.</p><p>But here’s the thing… Wanzhou wasn’t on American soil. She was arrested <em>in Canada</em>. The Canadian government is bringing the US case against Wanzhou, who could be extradited to the US to face charges.</p><p>So a Chinese citizen, working for a Chinese company, complying with Chinese law, was arrested on Canadian soil… because she allegedly violated US law. (She was recently released on bail – after a 3-day bail hearing, and two weeks in jail.)</p><p>We know these webs of where the “guilty” are from, where they were living, where they were arrested and on whose behalf is all confusing.</p><p><strong>The point is, if you challenge the US government, prepare for your new accommodations in a 6 by 8 foot cage.</strong></p><p>It’s crazy. You know I actually had pork the other night, yet somehow Saudi Arabia hasn’t arrested me for violating its laws against non “halal” food.</p><p><strong>The US going after Dotcom and Assange is bad enough. But truth be told, these guys poked the bear.</strong></p><p>Assange published sensitive, <em>American</em> documents which authorities claim has threatened national security.</p><p>Dotcom made the <em>American</em> government lose out on tax dollars.</p><p>I still don’t think it’s right to apply American law worldwide... but what do you expect America to do? It’s not surprising.</p><p>But the USA’s latest move should disgust anyone with even a distant memory of what freedom was.</p><p>If Huawei did business with Iran, this has nothing to do with the United States. It’s not illegal according to Chinese or Canadian law to do business with Iran. <strong>That’s a US law.</strong></p><p>If the US wants to escalate trade wars or impose more tariffs to punish the company… fine, whatever.</p><p>But to bring criminal charges against company leadership <em>just for doing their job</em> is a terrifying development, even for the brazen US world police.</p><p><strong>The USA is the self-declared dictator of the planet. Forget sovereign nations, US law applies worldwide.</strong></p><p>And they will kidnap and extradite you from New Zealand, London, Canada, or wherever else they can get their hands on you.</p><p><u><strong>If they want you, they will get you.</strong></u></p><p><em>And to continue learning how to ensure you thrive no matter what happens next in the world, I encourage you to <a href="https://www.sovereignman.com/resources/perfect-plan-b-guide/">download our free Perfect Plan B Guide</a>.</em></p><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~4/wTbEX0QGatc" height="1" width="1" alt="" />KULIONLINEhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07689534547405416862noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1172689132595421539.post-68449055316493897492018-12-16T01:52:00.003+07:002018-12-16T11:04:18.980+07:00The Yield Curve Flattens & Bank Stocks Plunge. Here's The Connection... And The Prediction<p><a href="https://www.dollarcollapse.com/yield-curve-flattens-bank-stocks-plunge/"><em>Authored by John Rubino via DollarCollapse.com,</em></a></p><p>Despite all the ominous press being devoted to the soon-to-be-inverted <a href="https://www.dollarcollapse.com/yield-curve-starts-generating-headlines/">yield curve</a>, <strong>it’s not always clear why such a thing matters.</strong> <em>In other words, how, exactly does a line on a graph slipping below zero translate into a recession and equities bear market, with all the turmoil that those things imply?</em></p><p><strong>The answer (which is both simple and really easy to illustrate with charts) is that banks – the main driver of our hyper-finacialized society – still make at least some of their money by borrowing short and lending long.</strong> They take money that’s deposited into savings accounts and short-term CDs (or borrowed in the money markets) and lend it to businesses and home buyers for years or decades. In normal times long-term rates are higher than short-term to compensate lenders for tying their money up for longer periods. The banks earn that spread, which can be substantial if borrowers make their payments.</p><p><strong>When the yield curve flattens and then inverts - that is, when short rates exceed long rates - banks lose the ability to make money this way. They lend less, which restricts building and buying and spooks the broader markets.</strong></p><p><strong><a data-image-external-href="" data-image-href="/sites/default/files/inline-images/01182013_bank_crack_article.jpg?itok=tfX4THkq" data-link-option="0" href="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/01182013_bank_crack_article.jpg?itok=tfX4THkq"><img data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="cceee07f-1f4d-4750-ba0b-a68e2e25b05d" data-responsive-image-style="inline_images" height="281" width="500" srcset="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/01182013_bank_crack_article.jpg?itok=tfX4THkq 1x" src="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/01182013_bank_crack_article.jpg" alt="" typeof="foaf:Image" /></a></strong></p><p>So, here’s the flattening, apparently soon-to-invert yield curve:</p><p><a data-image-external-href="" data-image-href="/sites/default/files/inline-images/2018-12-15_8-28-54.jpg?itok=kzSKPDI4" data-link-option="0" href="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/2018-12-15_8-28-54.jpg?itok=kzSKPDI4"><img data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="e02de4cb-3899-4766-975a-aa3b2a8b13b8" data-responsive-image-style="inline_images" height="264" width="500" srcset="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/2018-12-15_8-28-54.jpg?itok=kzSKPDI4 1x" src="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/2018-12-15_8-28-54.jpg" alt="" typeof="foaf:Image" /></a></p><p>And here’s how bank stocks are behaving in response. The following chart is for the BKX bank stock ETF that includes all the major US banks.</p><p><a data-image-external-href="" data-image-href="/sites/default/files/inline-images/2018-12-15_8-30-21.jpg?itok=ktsdwG90" data-link-option="0" href="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/2018-12-15_8-30-21.jpg?itok=ktsdwG90"><img data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="e7bd48b4-0896-48cf-83e1-0b41c11ff004" data-responsive-image-style="inline_images" height="263" width="500" srcset="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/2018-12-15_8-30-21.jpg?itok=ktsdwG90 1x" src="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/2018-12-15_8-30-21.jpg" alt="" typeof="foaf:Image" /></a></p><p>Note how it was stable for the first nine months of the year and <strong>then fell off a cliff as it became clear that the yield curve really was going to invert.</strong></p><p><a data-image-external-href="" data-image-href="/sites/default/files/inline-images/2018-12-14_11-16-29_0.jpg?itok=-uD-OVr-" data-link-option="0" href="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/2018-12-14_11-16-29_0.jpg?itok=-uD-OVr-"><img data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="8b535e49-1479-4cad-b1c7-1bbaa8257b81" data-responsive-image-style="inline_images" height="243" width="500" srcset="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/2018-12-14_11-16-29_0.jpg?itok=-uD-OVr- 1x" src="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/2018-12-14_11-16-29_0.jpg" alt="" typeof="foaf:Image" /></a></p><p>Reuters conducted a poll of bond analysts that illustrates how fast things are changing:</p><blockquote><h2><a href="https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2018-12-12/us-yield-curve-to-invert-in-2019-recession-to-follow-reuters-poll">U.S. Yield Curve to Invert in 2019, Recession to Follow: Reuters Poll</a></h2><p>The U.S. Treasury yield curve will invert next year, possibly within the next six months, much earlier than forecast just three months ago, with a recession to follow as soon as a year after that, a Reuters poll showed on Thursday.</p><p><strong>The two-year Treasury yield is forecast to rise to 3.20 percent in the next 12 months, from around 2.78 percent on Wednesday,</strong> according to the Reuters poll of more than 70 bond market strategists taken Dec. 6-12. The 10-year bond yield was expected to rise to 3.30 percent from about 2.90 in a year.</p><p>While that would put the yield spread between the two-year and 10-year Treasuries in a year around where it is now, at around 10 basis points, about 40 percent of respondents forecast that gap to be zero or negative in the next 12 months.</p><p>Just in the last three months, the yield spread has collapsed by two-thirds from just over 30 basis points. That has coincided with one of the most tumultuous periods on global equity markets since late August.</p><p><strong>Thirty of more than 40 strategists who answered an extra question expect the 2s-10s yield spread to become negative in the next 12 months, including 15 who said within the next 6 months.</strong> Half of 26 strategists in the poll expect a U.S. recession to follow that inversion within the next two years.</p><p>While there is no set pattern on how long it takes for a recession to hit once the yield curve has flipped, it took about 18 months before the last deep recession about a decade ago.</p></blockquote><p><u><strong>The conclusion:</strong></u> <strong><em>Sentiment in the bond market – and by implication the broader economy – took a huge hit in the past couple of months</em></strong>.</p><p><em>[ZH: As did the market's expectations for the Fed rate trajectory]</em></p><p><a data-image-external-href="" data-image-href="/sites/default/files/inline-images/2018-12-14_12-08-36_0.jpg?itok=Wf1iM6bS" data-link-option="0" href="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/2018-12-14_12-08-36_0.jpg?itok=Wf1iM6bS"><img data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="6e0cc0d5-de4a-4161-92b6-2414ea9b735d" data-responsive-image-style="inline_images" height="260" width="500" srcset="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/2018-12-14_12-08-36_0.jpg?itok=Wf1iM6bS 1x" src="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/2018-12-14_12-08-36_0.jpg" alt="" typeof="foaf:Image" /></a></p><p><strong>And since in a fiat currency system sentiment is everything, it should be no surprise that banks are down and taking the rest of the stock market along for the ride.</strong></p><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~4/HsOvYyHkh2c" height="1" width="1" alt="" />KULIONLINEhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07689534547405416862noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1172689132595421539.post-35649773660865843552018-12-16T01:52:00.002+07:002018-12-16T11:04:18.357+07:00Most Americans Received No Pay Increase In 2018<p><strong>Most Americans say they didn't get a pay raise at their current job, or start a better paying job in the last 12 months,</strong> according to a Wednesday survey from <a href="https://www.bankrate.com/personal-finance/financial-security-december-2018/"><em>Bankrate.com</em></a>. </p><p>According to the poll, <strong>62% of Americans report not getting a pay raise or better paying job in the past year</strong> - up from 52% last surveyed last year. That said, just 25% of respondents in this year's survey said they would look for a new job in the next year. </p><p><a data-image-external-href="" data-image-href="/sites/default/files/inline-images/br%20responses.png?itok=sqacAQyJ" data-link-option="0" href="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/br%20responses.png?itok=sqacAQyJ"><img data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="5a0521d4-e33a-43ad-80f8-852609b2ea00" data-responsive-image-style="inline_images" height="500" width="500" srcset="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/br%20responses.png?itok=sqacAQyJ 1x" src="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/br%20responses.png" alt="" typeof="foaf:Image" /></a></p><blockquote><p>Mike Gnitecki, a licensed paramedic in Longview, Texas, is one of the Americans whose wages flatlined.</p><p>Because of a pay freeze at his previous employer, the University of Texas Health hospital system, <strong>he hadn’t seen a pay increase for the past three years</strong>. He’s been stuck at a base pay of $43,500 a year, with the opportunity for overtime.</p><p>“<strong>It basically feels like my pay has dropped each year due to normal cost-of-living increases</strong>,” Gnitecki says. “At the same time, my experience and responsibility has increased.” -<a href="https://www.bankrate.com/personal-finance/financial-security-december-2018/"><em>Bankrate.com</em></a></p></blockquote><p>32% of those polled by <em>Bankrate</em> said they received a raise, vs. 38% last year, while just 11% of respondents got a better paying job - down from 18% last year. </p><p>After feeling "frustrated," Gnitecki reached a turning point and found a similar paramedic job with a "decent increase" in pay and benefits, which he starts this month. </p><blockquote><p><strong><em>"It feels really good because it kind of feels like I’m being paid how much I should be paid,"</em></strong> he said, adding "I’m very glad I made the switch."</p></blockquote><p>As <a href="https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-majority-of-americans-did-not-get-a-pay-raise-this-year-2018-12-12?mod=bnbh"><em>Marketwatch</em></a> notes, meanwhile, the average CEO at the largest 350 companies in the US received a 17.6% increase in pay in 2017 - clocking in at an average of $18.9 million, according to an August study from the Economic Policy Institute. </p><p>Bankrate Chief Financial Analyst Greg McBride says that while the economy might be doing great right now, however productivity isn't following suit and may explain the stagnation in wage growth. </p><blockquote><p><strong>"The economy might be doing better, but employees aren’t cranking out more output per hour of work,"</strong> said McBride.</p><p>"A technological advancement or breakthrough could help, and in a lot of ways, just how work is done could be more efficient in the workplace."</p></blockquote><p>According to <em>Bankrate</em>, <strong>young workers aged 18-27 were the most likely to receive a promotion</strong> or new job responsibilities that resulted in a pay raise, and were the most likely group to say they will seek a new job in the next 12 months. </p><blockquote><p>Among all respondents who got a raise, 37 percent reported it being performance-based, showing no difference from last year’s survey. About 29 percent cited raises because of a promotion or new job responsibilities, up from 24 percent last year. About 27 percent stated a raise was given as a cost-of-living increase, also unchanged from last year. Just 4 percent cited a raise for some other reason. -<a href="https://www.bankrate.com/personal-finance/financial-security-december-2018/"><em>Bankrate.com</em></a></p></blockquote><p><a data-image-external-href="" data-image-href="/sites/default/files/inline-images/increase.png?itok=q-r0H9qV" data-link-option="0" href="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/increase.png?itok=q-r0H9qV"><img data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="d748be8a-1da3-4147-869f-7c4874740b92" data-responsive-image-style="inline_images" height="500" width="500" srcset="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/increase.png?itok=q-r0H9qV 1x" src="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/increase.png" alt="" typeof="foaf:Image" /></a></p><p>Baby boomers, meanwhile, were the <strong>least likely</strong> to get a raise according to the survey. </p><blockquote><p>Older baby boomers, ages 64-72, had the highest incidence of reporting neither a pay raise nor a better paying job, at 79 percent. This generation is at their peak earning potential, McBride says, and opportunities tend to dissipate at this stage. -<a href="https://www.bankrate.com/personal-finance/financial-security-december-2018/"><em>Bankrate.com</em></a></p></blockquote><p>Despite the lack of wage growth, the <em>Bankrate</em> survey found that <strong>91% of those polled had the same or greater confidence in the job market than one year ago</strong>, while just 9% said they have lower confidence. Of course, the caveat is that those making more money felt better about how things are going; 38% of those earning above $75,000 per year had increased confidence in the job market, while 24% of households making under $30,000 said the same. </p><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~4/U_Vf5OsvkxQ" height="1" width="1" alt="" />KULIONLINEhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07689534547405416862noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1172689132595421539.post-45208005679962541852018-12-16T01:52:00.001+07:002018-12-16T11:04:18.548+07:00FBI Docs Reveal: "Flynn Was Not Lying Or Did Not Think He Was Lying"<p><a href="https://saraacarter.com/fbi-docs-reveal-flynn-was-not-lying-or-did-not-think-he-was-lying/"><em>Authored by Sara Carter via SaraCarter.com,</em></a></p><p>The Special Counsel’s Office released key documents related to former National Security Advisor Lt. Gen. Michael Flynn Friday. Robert Mueller’s office had until 3 p.m. to get the documents to Judge Emmet Sullivan, who demanded information Wednesday after <a href="https://saraacarter.com/fbi-violated-policy-in-flynns-case-judge-demands-all-exculpatory-evidence/">bombshell information</a> surfaced in a memorandum submitted by Flynn’s attorney’s that led to serious concerns regarding the FBI’s initial questioning of the retired three-star general.</p><p><a data-image-external-href="" data-image-href="/sites/default/files/inline-images/gettyimages-995344862-612x612.jpg?itok=cyxY_lnq" data-link-option="0" href="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/gettyimages-995344862-612x612.jpg?itok=cyxY_lnq"><img data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="ed798023-4288-4679-bdcb-30badf15ad3e" data-responsive-image-style="inline_images" height="333" width="500" srcset="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/gettyimages-995344862-612x612.jpg?itok=cyxY_lnq 1x" src="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/gettyimages-995344862-612x612.jpg" alt="" typeof="foaf:Image" /></a></p><p><strong>The highly redacted documents included notes from former Deputy Director Andrew McCabe regarding his conversation with Flynn about arranging the interview with the FBI.</strong> The initial interview took place at the White House on Jan. 24, 2017.</p><p>The documents also include the FBI’s “302” report regarding Flynn’s interview with anti-Trump former FBI Agent Peter Strzok and FBI Agent Joe Pientka when they met with him at the White House. <strong>It is not, however, the 302 document from the actual January, 2017 interview but an August, 2017 report of Strzok’s recollections of the interview.</strong></p><p>Flynn’s attorney’s had noted in their memorandum to the courts that the documents revealed that FBI officials made the decision not to provide Flynn with his Miranda Rights, which would’ve have warned him of penalties for making false statements.</p><blockquote><p><em><strong>“The agents did not provide Gen. Flynn with a warning of the penalties for making a false statement under 18 U.S.C. 1001 before, during, or after the interview,”</strong></em> the Flynn memo says.</p><p>According to the 302, before the interview, <strong>McCabe and other FBI officials “decided the agents would not warn Flynn that it was a crime to lie during an FBI interview because they wanted Flynn to be relaxed</strong>, and they were concerned that giving the warnings might adversely affect the rapport.”</p></blockquote><p>McCabe, who has since been fired for lying to the DOJ’s Office of Inspector General about leaking information to the media, also asked Flynn not to have his lawyer present during the initial meeting with the FBI agents.</p><p>The July 2017 report, however, was the interview with Strzok. It described his interview with Flynn but was not the original Flynn interview.</p><p><strong>Apparent discrepancies within the 302 documents are being questioned by may former senior FBI officials, who state that there are stringent policies in place to ensure that the documents are guarded against tampering.</strong></p><p>On Thursday, FBI Supervisory Agent Jeff Danik told <a href="https://saraacarter.com/">SaraACarter.com</a> that Sullivan must also request all the communications between the two agents, as well as their supervisors around the August 2017 time-frame in order to get a complete and accurate picture of what transpired. Danik, who is an expert in FBI policy, says it is imperative that Sullivan also request “the workflow chart, which would show one-hundred percent, when the 302s were created when they were sent to a supervisor and who approved them.”</p><p>He stressed, <em><strong>“the bureau policy – the absolute FBI policy – is that the notes must be placed in the system in a 1-A file within five days of the interview.”</strong></em> Danik said that the handwritten notes get placed into the FBI Sentinel System, which is the FBI’s main record keeping system. <em>“Anything beyond five business days is a problem, eight months is a disaster,” he added.</em></p><p>In the redacted 302 report Strzok and Pientka said they <em><strong>“both had the impression at the time that Flynn was not lying or did not think he was lying.”</strong></em> Information that Flynn was not lying was <a href="https://saraacarter.com/what-happened-during-the-michael-flynn-fbi-interview/">first published and reported</a> by SaraACarter.com.</p><p>Flynn was found guilty by Mueller on one count of lying to the FBI. Supporters of Flynn have questioned Mueller’s tactics in getting the retired three-star general to plead guilty to this one count of lying.</p><p>In the report, the two agents describe Flynn as being very open and noted said <strong>Flynn “clearly saw the FBI agents as allies.”</strong> Flynn is described as discussing a variety of “subjects.” The report includes his openness regarding Trump’s “knack for interior design,” the hotels he stayed at during his campaign, as well as other issues.</p><blockquote><p>“Flynn was so talkative, and had so much time for them, that Strzok wondered if the national security adviser did not have more important things to do than have a such a relaxed, non-pertinent discussion with them,” it said.</p></blockquote><p>The documents turned over by Mueller also reveal that <strong>other FBI personnel “later argued about the FBI’s decision to interview Flynn.”</strong></p><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~4/M_UW6VhMhwk" height="1" width="1" alt="" />KULIONLINEhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07689534547405416862noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1172689132595421539.post-83311300942249278092018-12-16T01:52:00.000+07:002018-12-16T11:04:19.199+07:00With 100 Million Daily Visits, Porn Site Reveals Hottest 2018 Searched Term<p>It is not surprising whatsoever that millions of people have a pornography addiction. To be more specific: There are over 125 million daily visits to Pornhub sites, according to Pornhub’s research and analysis blog, <a href="https://www.pornhub.com/insights/2018-year-in-review">Pornhub Insights</a>. </p><p>Pornhub Insights blog has shown that 2018 was an incredible year with lots of searches, celebrities, and events that influenced what people searched on Pornhub. Here are some of those impressive stats: </p><p><a data-image-external-href="" data-image-href="/sites/default/files/inline-images/views-1544546973_0.jpg?itok=BvseDaMp" data-link-option="0" href="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/views-1544546973_0.jpg?itok=BvseDaMp"><img data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="6199df89-889e-42c7-9317-fc922f3cf1cf" data-responsive-image-style="inline_images" height="2483" width="500" srcset="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/views-1544546973_0.jpg?itok=BvseDaMp 1x" src="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/views-1544546973_0.jpg" alt="" typeof="foaf:Image" /></a></p><p>According to Pornhub, the website saw more than 33.5 billion views in 2018, which is about a 5 billion visit jump over 2017. </p><p>"That equates to a daily average of 92 million visitors—and at the time of this writing, Pornhub’s daily visits now exceed 100 million...To put that into perspective, that’s as if the combined populations of Canada, Poland and Australia all visited Pornhub every day!"</p><blockquote><p>"Every minute, 63,992 new visitors arrive at Pornhub, 207,405 videos are watched and 57,750 searches are performed. 55 of those video views are of Kim Kardashian’s sex tape, which is still Pornhub’s most watched video of all time at 195 million views.</p><p>12 new videos and 2 hours of content are uploaded to Pornhub every minute while 7708 Gigabytes of data are transferred worldwide. Pornhub’s users view 13,962 profiles, follow 593 other users, accept 167 friend requests and send 122 messages. 271 videos are rated, 528 are added to playlists and 22 new comments are left, the report said."</p></blockquote><p><a data-image-external-href="" data-image-href="/sites/default/files/inline-images/every%20min%20on%20porn%20guv_0.jpg?itok=lw8hV2Pd" data-link-option="0" href="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/every%20min%20on%20porn%20guv_0.jpg?itok=lw8hV2Pd"><img data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="4b5aae16-7c35-46a4-a354-f9e0aa889591" data-responsive-image-style="inline_images" height="501" width="500" srcset="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/every%20min%20on%20porn%20guv_0.jpg?itok=lw8hV2Pd 1x" src="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/every%20min%20on%20porn%20guv_0.jpg" alt="" typeof="foaf:Image" /></a></p><p>Mainstream media and pop culture events often influence Pornhub's top searches. So, it is no surprise that pornstar (and alleged pre-presidential mistress) Stormy Daniels ranked number on the list of searches that defined 2018. </p><p><a data-image-external-href="" data-image-href="/sites/default/files/inline-images/top%20search_0.jpg?itok=4Q0GQ9lS" data-link-option="0" href="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/top%20search_0.jpg?itok=4Q0GQ9lS"><img data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="623175cb-2b61-41a4-b49e-0bab70a61c18" data-responsive-image-style="inline_images" height="729" width="500" srcset="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/top%20search_0.jpg?itok=4Q0GQ9lS 1x" src="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/top%20search_0.jpg" alt="" typeof="foaf:Image" /></a></p><p>Searches for the video game ‘Fortnite’ made it to the website's top 20 list this year. Each time new Fortnite characters were released, searches on Pornhub would surge.</p><p>According to Dr. Laurie Betito, Director of the <a href="https://www.pornhub.com/sex/">Pornhub Sexual Wellness Center</a>, <em>“<strong>searches like these serve as an indication that people use this site to not only satisfy sexual urges but also to get a different angle on something they are already interested in.</strong> To see a famous character or hot topic in a sexual context.”</em></p><p><a data-image-external-href="" data-image-href="/sites/default/files/inline-images/most%20searched%20porn%20star_0.png?itok=Bmlld31e" data-link-option="0" href="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/most%20searched%20porn%20star_0.png?itok=Bmlld31e"><img data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="fee44468-ed07-4c22-8a55-ab9181dde3d7" data-responsive-image-style="inline_images" height="595" width="500" srcset="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/most%20searched%20porn%20star_0.png?itok=Bmlld31e 1x" src="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/most%20searched%20porn%20star_0.png" alt="" typeof="foaf:Image" /></a></p><p>Fantasy plays a significant role in pornography, so it makes sense that people want to see their favorite video game character or celebrity in a porno. In April, when <a href="https://www.pornhub.com/insights/fortnite-server-outage">Fortnite’s servers crashed</a>, searches for Fortnite increased by as much as 60% over 24 hours, said Pornhub research.</p><p>Pornhub’s top 4 searches by volume remained the same from 2017 to 2018: These included ‘lesbian’, ‘hentai’, ‘milf’ and ‘stepmom’. “Contrary to popular belief, men are not just interested in youthful bodies,” notes Dr. Laurie. “They like the idea of an older, experienced woman and may care less about the perfection of her body.”</p><p><a data-image-external-href="" data-image-href="/sites/default/files/inline-images/searched%20terms_0.png?itok=57T11i0q" data-link-option="0" href="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/searched%20terms_0.png?itok=57T11i0q"><img data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="130c9c27-06b9-4025-baf5-29055f52b046" data-responsive-image-style="inline_images" height="642" width="500" srcset="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/searched%20terms_0.png?itok=57T11i0q 1x" src="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/searched%20terms_0.png" alt="" typeof="foaf:Image" /></a></p><p>Many people believe Sunday is about the Lord's Day. Then after a few hours of church service, the afternoon becomes a day of flipping between the PGA, NFL, and of course, NASCAR Cup series races on television, but that is not so much the case, millions sit down and watch porn. </p><p>"Sunday is the most popular day to visit Pornhub, while Friday tends to have the lowest traffic. A lot of that has to do with the hours people prefer to watch porn. Peak viewing times are usually from 10 p.m. to midnight, but on weekends (as people tend to stay up a later, go out more, and sleep in longer), the viewing time shifts more into the morning hours."</p><p><a data-image-external-href="" data-image-href="/sites/default/files/inline-images/sunday%20porn%20time.png?itok=z2YaSM5t" data-link-option="0" href="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/sunday%20porn%20time.png?itok=z2YaSM5t"><img data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="723a2a15-5eff-442d-92a0-1c73bd97ac70" data-responsive-image-style="inline_images" height="770" width="500" srcset="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/sunday%20porn%20time.png?itok=z2YaSM5t 1x" src="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/sunday%20porn%20time.png" alt="" typeof="foaf:Image" /></a></p><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~4/oV2mipIh0v0" height="1" width="1" alt="" />KULIONLINEhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07689534547405416862noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1172689132595421539.post-19327338359982075872018-12-15T23:52:00.003+07:002018-12-16T11:04:18.188+07:00Leaked Memo Touts UK-Funded Firm's Ability To Create "Untraceable" News Sites For "Infowar Campaign"KULIONLINEhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07689534547405416862noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1172689132595421539.post-83600849262929797442018-12-15T23:52:00.002+07:002018-12-16T11:04:19.224+07:00Bare-Breasted 'Mariannes' Face Off With French Police; Tear Gas, Pepper Spray Used On Protesting Yellow Vests<p>Week five of Yellow Vest demonstrations turned violent after protesters in Paris began to scuffle with police. </p><p><a data-image-external-href="" data-image-href="/sites/default/files/inline-images/facing%20off.jpg?itok=65FHvQpp" data-link-option="0" href="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/facing%20off.jpg?itok=65FHvQpp"><img data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="d3166ae2-8808-432e-a48b-df77ffb169a1" data-responsive-image-style="inline_images" height="334" width="500" srcset="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/facing%20off.jpg?itok=65FHvQpp 1x" src="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/facing%20off.jpg" alt="" typeof="foaf:Image" /></a></p><p>Just under 70,000 police have been mobilized across France in an effort to contain some 33,500 estimated protesters - a much lower turnout than in previous weeks, while the Yellow Vest movement itself has spread to several countries across Europe, as well as Iraq, Israel and even Canada. </p><p><iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/Qm7-8WhA05A" width="560"></iframe></p><p>Less than 3,000 protesters descended on Paris so far on Saturday, compared to 8,000 or so last week. Of those, 114 people had been detained in the capital - around 20% of last week's figure. </p><p><a data-image-external-href="" data-image-href="/sites/default/files/inline-images/burning%20street.jpg?itok=O9MYnpN3" data-link-option="0" href="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/burning%20street.jpg?itok=O9MYnpN3"><img data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="1cb1e09b-6d5c-4243-bc9d-e730475acdcf" data-responsive-image-style="inline_images" height="281" width="500" srcset="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/burning%20street.jpg?itok=O9MYnpN3 1x" src="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/burning%20street.jpg" alt="" typeof="foaf:Image" /></a></p><p>Police used tear gas and pepper spray on protesters in the center of Paris on Saturday. One person was reportedly hurt in the head during clashes at Champs-Élysées. A correspondent with Russian state-owned media outlet <em>RT</em> suffered an injury to the face and was taken to the hospital. </p><p><a data-image-external-href="" data-image-href="/sites/default/files/inline-images/teargas.jpg?itok=yekQJRJn" data-link-option="0" href="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/teargas.jpg?itok=yekQJRJn"><img data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="5f874c61-d94c-4885-a197-56f5b7827f3e" data-responsive-image-style="inline_images" height="323" width="500" srcset="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/teargas.jpg?itok=yekQJRJn 1x" src="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/teargas.jpg" alt="" typeof="foaf:Image" /></a></p><blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p dir="ltr" lang="ru" xml:lang="ru">Нашего корра на протестах во Франции ранили в лицо. Она поехала в больницу. <a href="https://t.co/nVRBuuOKWG">pic.twitter.com/nVRBuuOKWG</a></p>— Маргарита Симоньян (@M_Simonyan) <a href="https://twitter.com/M_Simonyan/status/1073945988644200449?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 15, 2018</a></blockquote><p>Meanwhile, in stark contrast to the bright yellow vests worn by most protesters - a groupd of half-naked women posing as Marianne, the Goddess of Liberty and a symbol of French patriotism, have faced off with police in Paris. </p><p><a data-image-external-href="" data-image-href="/sites/default/files/inline-images/marianes.jpg?itok=d0GmaqZa" data-link-option="0" href="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/marianes.jpg?itok=d0GmaqZa"><img data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="4b1ac69b-13f1-41b9-925e-a7226e22d2e9" data-responsive-image-style="inline_images" height="297" width="500" srcset="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/marianes.jpg?itok=d0GmaqZa 1x" src="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/marianes.jpg" alt="" typeof="foaf:Image" /></a></p><p>Donning blood-red hoodies and coated in silver paint, the women paid homage to the French revolutionary hero on Champs-Élysées avenue on Saturday in a silent demonstration. </p><p><a data-image-external-href="" data-image-href="/sites/default/files/inline-images/facing.jpg?itok=GfDhvPKg" data-link-option="0" href="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/facing.jpg?itok=GfDhvPKg"><img data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="43d9bfb3-0143-4f72-8345-bb6afedd6477" data-responsive-image-style="inline_images" height="342" width="500" srcset="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/facing.jpg?itok=GfDhvPKg 1x" src="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/facing.jpg" alt="" typeof="foaf:Image" /></a></p><p><a data-image-external-href="" data-image-href="/sites/default/files/inline-images/red%20girls.jpg?itok=uaO_YzUG" data-link-option="0" href="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/red%20girls.jpg?itok=uaO_YzUG"><img data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="f5c52be7-14a1-433a-ad72-8826d22959ff" data-responsive-image-style="inline_images" height="281" width="500" srcset="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/red%20girls.jpg?itok=uaO_YzUG 1x" src="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/red%20girls.jpg" alt="" typeof="foaf:Image" /></a></p><p><a data-image-external-href="" data-image-href="/sites/default/files/inline-images/facing%20cops.jpg?itok=deriXhma" data-link-option="0" href="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/facing%20cops.jpg?itok=deriXhma"><img data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="6397982c-f6fd-40cb-8a2f-64e24146bddf" data-responsive-image-style="inline_images" height="281" width="500" srcset="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/facing%20cops.jpg?itok=deriXhma 1x" src="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/facing%20cops.jpg" alt="" typeof="foaf:Image" /></a></p><p>Seven people in total have died during the Yellow Vest demonstrations, which has gone from a fuel tax protest to an anti-government movement.</p><blockquote><p>"Last time, we were here for taxes," said 28-year-old called Jeremy told the AFP news agency.</p><p>"T<strong>his is for the institutions - we want more direct democracy,</strong>" he said, adding that people needed to "shout to make themselves heard".</p><p><strong>Some museums are closed, but both the Louvre and the Eiffel Tower remain open.</strong></p><p>In Calais, <strong>a group of "yellow vests" blocked the access road to the port</strong>. -<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-46577598">BBC</a></p></blockquote><p>Meanwhile, an Anonymous Sith yellow vest brought his double-lightsaber: </p><p><iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/LjxmQCiB0Ts" width="560"></iframe><script async="" src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8" type="text/javascript"></script></p><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~4/MJ6spy9gcQE" height="1" width="1" alt="" />KULIONLINEhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07689534547405416862noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1172689132595421539.post-13306938418695251282018-12-15T23:52:00.001+07:002018-12-16T11:04:18.139+07:00How Faux Capitalism Works In America<p>Authored by <a href="http://economicprism.com/">EconomicPrism's MN Gordon</a>, <a href="https://acting-man.com/?p=53920">annotated by Acting-Man's Pater Tenebrarum</a>,</p><h3><u><strong>Stars in the Night Sky</strong></u></h3><p>The U.S. stock market’s recent zigs and zags have provoked much squawking and screeching. Wall Street pros, private money managers, and Millennial index fund enthusiasts all find themselves on the wrong side of the market’s swift movements. <strong>Even the best and brightest can’t escape President Trump’s tweet precipitated short squeezes.</strong></p><p><a data-image-external-href="" data-image-href="/sites/default/files/inline-images/1-the-short-squeeze-tweet-768x271.png?itok=w6zMQEaA" data-link-option="0" href="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/1-the-short-squeeze-tweet-768x271.png?itok=w6zMQEaA"><img data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="059ceb15-73b7-4501-9758-87a466c25c59" data-responsive-image-style="inline_images" height="176" width="500" srcset="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/1-the-short-squeeze-tweet-768x271.png?itok=w6zMQEaA 1x" src="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/1-the-short-squeeze-tweet-768x271.png" alt="" typeof="foaf:Image" /></a></p><p><em>The Donald mercilessly hits the shorts with a well-timed tweet. But as it turns out, this market is in a really bad mood at the moment. [PT]</em></p><p>The short-term significance of the DJIA’s 8 percent decline since early-October is uncertain. For all we know, stocks could run up through the end of the year. Stranger things have happened.</p><p>What is also uncertain is the nature of this purge: Is this another soft decline like that of mid-2015 to early-2016, when the DJIA fell 12 percent before quickly resuming its uptrend? Or is this the start of a brutal bear market – the kind that wipes out portfolios and blows up investment funds?</p><p>The stars in the night sky tell us this is the latter. For example, when peering out into the night sky even the most untrained eye can identify the three ominous stars that are lining up with mechanical precision.</p><p><strong>These stars include a stock market top, followed by a <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/21/theres-a-9-trillion-corporate-debt-bomb-bubbling-in-the-us-economy.html">monster corporate debt buildup</a>, and a fading economy. In short, the stock market’s latest break is presaging a corporate credit crisis and global recession.</strong></p><p><a data-image-external-href="" data-image-href="/sites/default/files/inline-images/2-Hi-Yield-Master-2-plus-tweet-768x508.png?itok=9XQAbCpF" data-link-option="0" href="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/2-Hi-Yield-Master-2-plus-tweet-768x508.png?itok=9XQAbCpF"><img data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="a6beca57-b3aa-473a-948f-15828ff8a462" data-responsive-image-style="inline_images" height="331" width="500" srcset="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/2-Hi-Yield-Master-2-plus-tweet-768x508.png?itok=9XQAbCpF 1x" src="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/2-Hi-Yield-Master-2-plus-tweet-768x508.png" alt="" typeof="foaf:Image" /></a></p><p><em>BofA/Merrill Lynch US high yield Master II Index yield – this looks like a quite convincing breakout, impossible to tweet down. In other words, the corporate debt build-up is beginning to bite back – and rather bigly, if we may say so (ed note, in case you’re wondering: the little poems are from a Spectator competition in which people used phrases from actual tweets to put together Donald haikus and poems). [PT]</em></p><p><strong>The last time these three stars aligned in this sequence was roughly a decade ago. </strong> If you recall, that was when the DJIA crashed 50 percent coincident with a mega credit crisis and recession. We suspect that the disaster that’s approaching will be much larger, and much more destructive than the disaster of a decade ago.</p><h3><u><strong>Bad Habit</strong></u></h3><p>Astute readers will be quick to point out that government debt was not identified as one of the three ominous stars lining up in the night sky. This is not an oversight. Rather, it is an insight.</p><p>Without question, government debt has burgeoned way beyond what even the most doom and gloom pessimists could have envisioned just a decade ago. In fact, November marked the <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-13/u-s-budget-deficit-hits-widest-on-record-for-month-of-november">widest</a> one month budget deficit in U.S. history.</p><p>Over a one month period – a month with just 30 days, not 31 – the U.S. government spent $411 billion while it only received $206 billion. By our rough back of the napkin calculation, the U.S. government spent nearly double what it took in. That difference, of course, was made up with debt. Roughly, $6.83 billion of new debt was added each and every day.</p><p><strong>At best, spending more than one makes, like smoking or swearing, is a bad habit. However, spending more than one makes with no intention to pay it back is a moral failing.</strong> What’s more, running up untenable levels of government debt with the implied intent of inflating it away at the expense of the citizenry is downright evil.</p><p><a data-image-external-href="" data-image-href="/sites/default/files/inline-images/3-Federal-Debt-768x466.png?itok=VFpBdctv" data-link-option="0" href="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/3-Federal-Debt-768x466.png?itok=VFpBdctv"><img data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="f7a24df3-88c0-4f8b-a474-4641a73d5dde" data-responsive-image-style="inline_images" height="303" width="500" srcset="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/3-Federal-Debt-768x466.png?itok=VFpBdctv 1x" src="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/3-Federal-Debt-768x466.png" alt="" typeof="foaf:Image" /></a></p><p><em>It’s definitely a tremendous pile of debt… and the slope of the mountain has steepened quite dramatically in recent years… [PT]</em></p><p>Day after day, month after month, year after year, decade after decade, the U.S. government has racked up close to <a href="http://www.usdebtclock.org/">$22 trillion</a> in debt. Throw in unfunded liabilities of social security, Medicare (Parts A, B, and D), federal debt held by the public, and federal employee and veteran benefits, and the U.S. government’s on the hook for over $115.8 trillion in debt – or nearly $1 million per taxpayer. How about that?</p><p><strong>Of course, as the population ages, and the ratio of workers to retirees balances, these debt figures will go vertical.</strong> As you can see, government debt is more than just an ominous star. It’s the essential star. Moreover, it is a dying star on the verge of collapse. Quite frankly, it may not have enough energy to backstop the financial system during the next downturn. Here’s why…</p><h3><u><strong>How Faux Capitalism Works in America</strong></u></h3><p><strong>Our guess is that the real squawking from investors won’t begin until mid-2019. That’s about the time corporate America becomes acutely aware that pumping gobs of borrowed money into grossly overvalued stocks was an act of financial suicide.</strong></p><p>Just look to <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/11/investors-should-be-furious-3-stock-buybacks-that-went-horribly-wrong.html">General Electric, IBM, and Citigroup</a> for an early indication of the forthcoming catastrophe. For instance, over the last decade GE spent <a href="https://money.cnn.com/2018/03/23/investing/ge-share-buybacks-immelt/index.html">$46 billion</a> buying back its shares. In 2016 and 2017 alone, at a time of mushrooming debt, GE pumped $24 billion into share buybacks.</p><p><a data-image-external-href="" data-image-href="/sites/default/files/inline-images/4-GE-768x568.png?itok=bTMhoish" data-link-option="0" href="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/4-GE-768x568.png?itok=bTMhoish"><img data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="dee08eb6-002e-4240-859e-34a2dca8eaf5" data-responsive-image-style="inline_images" height="370" width="500" srcset="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/4-GE-768x568.png?itok=bTMhoish 1x" src="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/4-GE-768x568.png" alt="" typeof="foaf:Image" /></a></p><p><em>GE wasted $46 billion on buying back its shares – with nothing to show for it except a collapsing share price. This was an astonishing misallocation of capital – very likely the company will eventually have issue new shares to prop up its equity, at prices far below the prices it paid for buying them back. [PT]</em></p><p>Over this time, the price of these shares dropped from about $30 to $16. And even with Thursday’s 7.3 percent boost, on word of a surprise JPMorgan upgrade, GE shares trade at $7.20. In other words, shares GE bought back during the early part of 2016 have lost 75 percent of their value. What to make of it?</p><p><u><em><strong>The 2008 financial crisis helped clarify how faux capitalism works in America. </strong></em></u> That when the big corporations and the big banks get in trouble, the people on top quickly absolve culpability while appropriating public funds from their friends at the Treasury for the purpose of private bailouts. This, in effect, socializes the losses across bottom rungs of society and concentrates profits across the top.</p><p>No doubt, the aftermath of the great corporate stock buyback craze of 2009 to 2017 will be a text book example of faux capitalism in action.<em><strong> First, massive financial bailouts will be disseminated to crony banks and corporations with purpose and intent. Then, a colossal river of monetary liquidity from the Fed will be diverted into credit markets, and into direct stock purchases of government preferred corporations.</strong></em></p><p><a data-image-external-href="" data-image-href="/sites/default/files/inline-images/Bailout-Workings-768x144.jpg?itok=J7ND3X1d" data-link-option="0" href="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/Bailout-Workings-768x144.jpg?itok=J7ND3X1d"><img data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="e72ea6ea-ac3c-4968-87f1-90e5e664a6e0" data-responsive-image-style="inline_images" height="94" width="500" srcset="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/Bailout-Workings-768x144.jpg?itok=J7ND3X1d 1x" src="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/Bailout-Workings-768x144.jpg" alt="" typeof="foaf:Image" /></a></p><p><em>Bailout progression – it continues until it cannot continue anymore, i.e., until the “running out of other people’s money” moment arrives. [PT]</em></p><p>The size and scope of these fiscal and monetary bailouts will utterly dwarf the TARP, ZIRP, and QE policies of the last crisis. Assuming this doesn’t blow up the Treasury’s balance sheet, or vaporize what’s left of the dollar’s value, a certain end effect will take shape. The middle class will be reduced to a notch or two above poverty, and wealth will be further concentrated into fewer and fewer hands.</p><p><em><strong>We don’t like it. We don’t agree with it. But we can’t stop it. This is the world we live in. A world where justice has been debased and rectitude has been sullied.</strong></em></p><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~4/3E5dcMvauTg" height="1" width="1" alt="" />KULIONLINEhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07689534547405416862noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1172689132595421539.post-69760428271454566952018-12-15T23:52:00.000+07:002018-12-16T11:04:19.005+07:00Europe To May: 'Drop Dead' - Support For Second "People's" Referendum Grows<p>Any confidence boost that might have followed Theresa May's <a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-12-12/uk-pm-may-says-she-wont-seek-another-term-no-confidence-vote-begins">triumph</a> this week over her party's implacable Brexiteers has probably already faded. Because if there was anything to be learned from the stunning rebuke delivered to the prime minister by EU leaders on Thursday, <strong>it's that the prime minister is looking more stuck than ever.</strong></p><p><a data-image-external-href="" data-image-href="/sites/default/files/inline-images/2018.12.15may.JPG?itok=iyNEO3-e" data-link-option="0" href="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/2018.12.15may.JPG?itok=iyNEO3-e"><img data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="389c89a6-1cd8-4db1-908d-1a20a7ce767e" data-responsive-image-style="inline_images" height="289" width="500" srcset="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/2018.12.15may.JPG?itok=iyNEO3-e 1x" src="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/2018.12.15may.JPG" alt="May" typeof="foaf:Image" /></a></p><p>This was evidenced by the frosty confrontation between the imperturbable May and her chief Continental antagonist, European Commission President Jean Claude Juncker, which was caught on film on Friday shortly before the close of a two-day European Council summit that descended into bitter recriminations. After offering token praise of May's leadership, Brussels' supreme bureaucrat criticized her negotiating strategy as "disorganized", provoking a heated response from May.</p><p><iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/X0tlM7rEAPM" width="560"></iframe></p><p>Earlier, May desperately pleaded with her European colleagues - who had adamantly insisted that the text of the withdrawal agreement would not be altered - to grant her "legally binding assurances" May believes would make the Brexit plan palatable enough to win a slim victory in the Commons.</p><p><strong>If there were any lingering doubts about the EU's position, they were swiftly dispelled by a striking gesture of contempt for May:</strong> Demonstrating the Continent's indifference to her plight, the final text of the summit's conclusions was altered to remove a suggestion that the EU consider what further assurances can be offered to May, while leaving in a resolution to continue contingency planning for a no-deal Brexit.</p><p>Even the Irish, who in the recent past have been sympathetic to their neighbors' plight (in part due to fears about a resurgence of insurrectionary violence should a hard border re-emerge between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland), implied that there patience had reached its breaking point.</p><p>Here's the <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/4ba84724-ff84-11e8-ac00-57a2a826423e">FT</a>:</p><blockquote><p>But Leo Varadkar, the Irish premier, warned that the EU could not tolerate a treaty approval process where a country <strong>"comes back every couple of weeks following discussions with their parliament looking for something extra...you can’t operate international relations on this basis."</strong></p><p>Senior EU officials are resisting further negotiations — and suggestions of a special Brexit summit next month — because they see Britain’s requests as in effect a bid to rewrite the exit treaty.</p><p>Mr Varadkar noted that many prime ministers had been called to Brussels "at short notice” for a special Brexit summit “on a Sunday in November," adding: "I don’t think they would be willing to come to Brussels again unless we really have to."</p></blockquote><p>In response, May threatened to hold a vote on the Brexit plan before Christmas, which would almost certainly result in its defeat, scrapping the fruits of more than a year of contentious negotiations.</p><blockquote><p>Given that Mrs May aborted a Commons vote on her deal this week because she feared defeat by a "significant margin," her comments amounted to a threat that she would let MPs kill the withdrawal agreement before Christmas.</p><p>Mrs May made the threat to German chancellor Angela Merkel, French president Emmanuel Macron and EU presidents Jean-Claude Juncker and Donald Tusk as the two day Brussels summit descended into acrimony, according to diplomats.</p><p><strong>"At the point where there is no prospect of getting anything more from the EU, that’s when you would have to put the vote,"</strong> said one close aide to Mrs May.</p></blockquote><p>If this week has taught May anything, it's that her plan to pressure the EU into more concessions (her preferred option to help her pass the Brexit plan) was an unmitigated failure. And given that running out the clock and hoping that MPs come around at the last minute (when the options truly have been reduced to 'deal' or 'no deal') leaves too much room for market-rattling uncertainty, May is left with a few options, two of which were previously 'off the table' (though she has distanced herself from those positions in recent weeks).</p><p>They are: <a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-11-23/confused-about-brexit-dont-be-heres-what-comes-next-uk">Calling a second referendum, delaying a Brexit vote, pivoting to a softer 'Plan B' Brexit, or accepting a 'no deal' Brexit.</a> As the <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-46551986">BBC</a> reminds us, May is obliged by law to put her deal to a vote by Jan. 21, or go to Parliament with a Plan B.</p><p><strong>If May does decide to run down the clock, she will have two last-minute options:</strong></p><blockquote><p>On the one hand she could somehow cancel, delay, soften or hold another referendum on Brexit and risk alienating the 17.4 million people who voted Leave.</p><p><strong>But on the other hand, she could go for a so-called Hard Brexit (where few of the existing ties between the UK and the EU are retained) and risk causing untold damage to the UK's economy and standing in the world for years to come.</strong></p></blockquote><p><strong>Alternatively, May could accept the fact that convincing the Brexiteers is a lost cause, and try to rally support among Labour MPs for a 'softer' Brexit plan, one that would more countenance closer ties with the EU during the transition, and ultimately set the stage for a closer relationship that could see the UK remain part of the customs union and single market.</strong> Conservatives are also increasingly pushing for a 'Plan B' deal that would effectively set the terms for a Norway- or Canada-style trade deal.</p><p>But as <a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-12-05/after-historic-commons-contempt-vote-jpm-raises-odds-no-brexit-40">JP Morgan</a> and <a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-12-11/deutsche-bank-raises-odds-uk-government-will-collapse-after-may-calls-deal-vote">Deutsche Bank</a> anticipated last week, a second referendum (which supporters have nicknamed a "People's Vote") is becoming increasingly popular, even among MPs who supported the 'Leave' campaign, according to <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-14/second-brexit-referendum-gaining-traction-as-way-to-end-gridlock">Bloomberg</a>.</p><blockquote><p><strong>It’s not the only previously unthinkable idea that May has talked about this week. Fighting off a challenge to her leadership from pro-Brexit Conservative members of Parliament, the premier warned that deposing her would mean delaying Britain’s departure from the European Union.</strong> That’s not something she admitted was possible last month.</p><p>The argument for a second referendum advanced by one minister was simple: If nothing can get through Parliament -- and it looks like nothing can -- the question needs to go back to voters.</p><p><strong>While campaigners for a second vote have mostly been those who want to reverse the result of the last one and keep Britain inside the EU, that’s not the reason a lot of new supporters are coming round to the idea.</strong></p><p>One Cabinet minister said this week he wanted a second referendum on the table to make clear to Brexit supporters in the Conservative Party that the alternative to May’s deal is no Brexit at all.</p></blockquote><p>Even former UKIP leader Nigel Farage is urging his supporters to be ready for a second referendum:</p><blockquote><p>Speaking at rally in London, Press Association quoted Farage as saying: "My message folks tonight is as much as I don’t want a second referendum it would be wrong of us on a Leave Means Leave platform not to get ready, not to be prepared for a worst-case scenario.”</p><p>Putting pressure on Brexiteers is also the reason there’s more talk of delaying the U.K.’s departure. <strong>At the moment, many Brexit-backers are talking openly about running down the clock to March so they can get the hard Brexit they want. Extending the process -- which is easier than many appreciate -- takes that strategy off the table.</strong></p></blockquote><p>Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn has continued to call for May to put her deal to a vote principally because its defeat is a necessary precursor for another referendum (or a no-confidence vote pushed by an alliance between Labour, and some combination of rebel Tories, the SNP and the DUP).</p><blockquote><p>"The last 24 hours have shown that Theresa May's Brexit deal is dead in the water," said Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn. "She's failed to deliver any meaningful changes. Rather than ploughing ahead and recklessly running down the clock, she needs to put her deal to a vote next week so Parliament can take back control."</p></blockquote><p>The upshot is that the Brexit trainwreck, which has been stuck at an impasse for months, could finally see some meaningful movement in the coming weeks. Which means its a good time to bring back this handy chart illustrating the many different outcomes that could arise:</p><p><a data-image-external-href="" data-image-href="/sites/default/files/inline-images/2018.12.15brexitchart.png?itok=7vNPHqpj" data-link-option="0" href="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/2018.12.15brexitchart.png?itok=7vNPHqpj"><img data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="f5fbe5a1-54fa-4b21-9ca1-ee545238e6e8" data-responsive-image-style="inline_images" height="440" width="500" srcset="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/2018.12.15brexitchart.png?itok=7vNPHqpj 1x" src="https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/2018.12.15brexitchart.png" alt="Brexit" typeof="foaf:Image" /></a></p><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~4/AUH0JHlpT6k" height="1" width="1" alt="" />KULIONLINEhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07689534547405416862noreply@blogger.com0